Are You Leading Through the Crisis … or Managing the Response?

A thoughtful article in the Harvard Business Review by Eric McNulty and Leonard Marcus which our current leaders might do well to note

The coronavirus crisis, like every crisis, is unfolding over an arc of time with a beginning, middle, and end. It is useful to think what distinguishes what wasis, and will be. There was a past of relative stability and predictability. There now is chaos and disruption. There will be … a different state. As this future unfolds, some organizations will be resilient. For others, this future will be catastrophic. The actions of executives and their teams now, in the midst of this crisis, will significantly determine their fate.

Crises, replete with both complexity and change, require executives to both lead and manage effectively. Addressing the urgent needs of the present is the work of management. You need to make immediate choices and allocate resources. The pace is fast, and actions are decisive.

Leading, by contrast, involves guiding people to the best possible eventual outcome over this arc of time. Your focus needs to be on what is likely to come next and readying to meet it. That means seeing beyond the immediate to anticipate the next three, four, or five obstacles.

For nearly two decades, we’ve researched and observed public and private-sector executives in high-stakes, high-pressure situations. What we’ve learned is that crises are most often over-managed and under-led. The best leaders navigate rough waters deftly, saving lives, energizing organizations, and inspiring communities. However, we’ve found that many leaders fall into one or more of the following leadership traps:

1. Taking a Narrow View

The human brain is programmed to narrow its focus in the face of a threat. It’s an evolutionary survival mechanism designed for self-protection. The trap is that your field of vision becomes restricted to the immediate foreground.

Leaders need to intentionally pull back, opening your mental aperture to take in the mid-ground and background. It is what we call meta-leadership — taking a broad, holistic view of both challenges and opportunities. Properly focused meta-leadership fosters well-directed management.

U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Peter Neffenger (Ret.) was deputy national incident commander during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We were with him during that event and distilled his insights into a situation connectivity map — a visual representation of the many situations unfolding around the spill. They included legal issues, political fallout, business continuity concerns, the economic and social health of affected communities, environmental impact, inter-agency coordination among responders, and more.

With this wider view, Neffenger discovered that his most pressing job was not managing the response to the spill itself — it was leading through the thicket of political implications consuming federal, state, and local officials. His efforts helped create space and top cover for the operators on the ground and water to succeed.

2. Getting Seduced by Managing

For leaders who have risen up through an organization or in a single industry, managing a crisis can feel thrilling. The trap is that you’re often returning to your operational comfort zone. Your adrenaline spikes as decisions are made and actions are taken. You experience a feeling of adding tangible value. However, it is like a sugar high that is quickly followed by a crash.

Leading through a crisis requires taking the long view, as opposed to managing the present. You need to anticipate what comes next week, next month, and even next year in order to prepare the organization for the changes ahead. You need to delegate and trust your people as they make tough decisions, providing proper support and guidance based on your experience while resisting the temptation to take over.

Knowing that a crisis can emerge at any moment, organizations in high-risk industries, such as energy and aviation, have robust health, safety, security, and environment (HSSE) functions to manage crises. When senior executives have deep trust in those in the HSSE function, they can focus their efforts on what’s necessary to emerge from the crisis stronger than before. When they do not, they micro-manage the response, disrupting the operating rhythm of the response managers, and subverting their own desires for a positive result.

3. Over-centralizing the Response

Risk and ambiguity increase during a crisis because so much is uncertain and volatile. The trap for leaders is trying to control everything. Suddenly, you’ve created new layers of approval for minor decisions. The organization becomes less responsive and frustration grows with each new constraint.

The solution is to seek order rather than control. Order means that people know what is expected of them and what they can expect of others. Leaders must acknowledge that you can’t control everything. Determine which decisions only you can make and delegate the rest. Establish clear guiding values and principles while foregoing the temptation to do everything yourself.

The response to the Boston Marathon bombings was the most collaborative and synchronous we’ve studied. Among our findings was the wise leadership taken by then-Governor Deval Patrick. As he and others told us, he most often would enter the command center asking how he could be useful, rather than telling people what to do. He was clear that the FBI was in charge of the investigation, the mayor of Boston wanted to “run his streets,” and that the professionals in the many organizations involved were best suited to make most moment-by-moment calls.

Where Patrick realized he could contribute the most was as a communicator — giving people hope for the future as the public face of government and serving as a trusted intermediary with the White House. He also spearheaded efforts to ensure that Massachusetts’ communities had the support to be resilient through significant adversity.

4. Forgetting the Human Factors

While it may seem obvious, crises are crises because they affect people. However, leaders can instead become trapped by focusing on the daily metrics of share price, revenue, and costs. These are important, but they are the outcome of the coordinated efforts of people. Organizations exist in order to accomplish together things that individuals cannot do alone.

The solution is to unite people in their efforts and goals as valued members of a cohesive team. This starts with a common, clearly articulated mission that infuses the work with purpose. The mission is then animated through an inclusive leadership approach where each person understands how they can contribute—and that their contribution is recognized. This gives deeper meaning to even the most menial tasks.

James “Jimmy” Dunne was one of three managing partners of the investment bank, Sandler O’Neill (now Piper Sandler). Their offices were in the World Trade Center on 9/11. The firm lost 40% of its personnel in that attack, including the other two partners. Dunne told us that the firm’s survival became his personal mission because he wanted to deny the terrorists a victory.

Dunne visualized his mission, looking at his two hands: In one hand, he held his business concerns; in the other was taking care of Sandler O’Neill’s people and their families. He said that the more he led on the people issues —personally attending funerals, continuing salaries and benefits, and other efforts — the more the business issues seemed to take care of themselves. Dunne created an environment in which people were collectively motivated to contribute to their shared success.

***

Imagine leading and managing as two circles in a Venn diagram. At the moment crisis strikes, the two circles largely overlap. As the event unfolds over the arc of time, the two activities move apart. The two circles are never fully separate because the present and the future are interdependent.  The most effective leaders in crises ensure that someone else is managing the present well while focusing their attention on leading beyond the crisis toward a more promising future.

Are office clusters as crucial to productivity as they once were?

More grist for the pandemic mill from Paul Ormerod writing for cityam.com

 

The Prime Minister is now demanding that offices reopen to revive economic activity in the centres of towns and cities.

But there is not yet much sign of a return to work.

The preferences of the workforce are an important factor in the very slow pace of return.  Fears expressed about the safety of public transport may or may not be genuine, but it is certainly true that many prefer to avoid the time spent commuting and enjoy the extra leisure time this brings.

But why do offices cluster together in urban centres anyway?

It is easy to see that in the old days industries such as steel and coal clustered geographically. One was a key supplier of the other. Being near at hand minimised transport costs.

Today’s offices span a wide range of diverse industries, from consulting to law to oil companies. The reasons why they locate in close proximity are more subtle.

The views of economists on this are still shaped by the writings of Alfred Marshall. He established the faculty of economics at Cambridge in 1903 and was then probably the world’s leading economist.

Marshall described the tendency of businesses to cluster near each other as “agglomeration”. He gave three key reasons why this colocation is observed. In addition to the savings on the costs of transporting the materials needed in industrial processes, Marshall developed a theory of labour market pooling, in which firms located near one another can share labour. Further, he believed that “intellectual spillovers” were important. Firms locate near each other in order to learn and speed up the process of innovation. Think of Silicon Valley, formed nearly a century after Marshall wrote.
A large number of detailed studies in recent decades confirm that these are not just mere theories. They have strong empirical support –  The Harvard economist Ed Glaeser, for example calculated that in the US in the 2000s each of Marshall’s three reasons were of roughly equal importance.

There have been very distinct benefits to agglomeration. Throughout the developed world, the greater the density of employment in an area, the higher is its productivity. Head offices contain more highly skilled staff and so will be more productive than the average. But in city centres, their productivity is even higher than their skill levels suggest they should be.

Has Covid-19 changed all this? Or more specifically, has the crisis enabled people to see that new technology could overturn two centuries of experience in urban centres in industrialised countries?

Certainly, tech platforms such as LinkedIn offer the potential for efficient hiring of relevant skills and for employees to discover opportunities through their networks. But new recruits need to be integrated. And younger people probably still need a combination of social and remote interaction to develop their own professional networks.

It is less clear that remote working can encourage innovation in the same way. Much of the informal contacts needed for this cannot be captured by video conferences.

Yes, there will be an increase in working from home.

But Marshall’s insights into the benefits of agglomeration still hold true.

How Fed Policy Is Wrecking the Economy

Of all known government interventions in the U.S. economy, the most insidious and dangerous is regulation of the price of money (interest rates).

Years of Federal Reserve Bank monetary stimulus and quantitative easing, promulgated for the purpose of easing or avoiding a recession, is wrecking the U.S. economy in ways that are only dimly understood.

In the most important essay you can read this month — perhaps this year — Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, shines light on the problem in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, “The Rescues Ruining Capitalism.”

The op-ed is must reading for anyone who seeks to understand the direction of the national economy

 

Here follows Sharma’s key points;

  • A growing body of research shows that constant government stimulus has been a major contributor to many of modern capitalism’s most glaring ills.
  • Easy money fuels the rise of giant firms and, along with crisis bailouts, keeps alive heavily indebted “zombie” firms at the expense of startups, which typically drive innovation.
  • All of this leads to low productivity — the prime contributor to the slowdown in economic growth and a shrinking of the pie for everyone.
  • At the same time, easy money has juiced up the value of stocks, bonds and other financial assets, which benefits mainly the rich, inflaming social resentment over growing inequalities in income and wealth. …
  • The rising culture of government dependence is, in fact, a form of socialism — for the rich and powerful. …
  • In 2008 the Treasury stepped in to save an entire sector — banks at the core of the mortgage crisis — with $200 billion.
  • Unable to do much more to cut rates, which were already close to zero, the Fed launched its first experiments in “quantitative easing,” buying up tens of billions of dollars in assets each day, including mortgage-backed securities, to calm the credit markets.
  • The rest of the world followed the Fed. …
  • In the 2010s, as easy money continued to flow from central banks, the global economy staged a recovery that was unusual for its length but also for its frustratingly slow pace of growth and for how few nations were allowed to suffer a moment’s pain. …
  • As governments stepped in to do whatever it took to eliminate recessions, downturns no longer purged the economy of inefficient companies, and recoveries have proven weaker and weaker, with lower productivity growth. …
  • After the global financial crisis of 2008, households and financial firms in many capitalist countries felt pressure to restrain their borrowing.
  • Governments did not.
  • The world’s total debt burden plateaued at a historic high of 320% of global GDP by the end of 2018, but within that total, government debt rose most rapidly. …
  • The idea of government as the balm for all crises is appealing in the short term, but it ignores the unintended consequences.
  • Without entrepreneurial risk and creative destruction, capitalism doesn’t work. 
  • Disruption and regeneration, the heart of the system, grind to a halt – deadwood never falls from the tree – green shoots are nipped in the bud.
  • Low rates give big companies a strategic incentive to grow even bigger, in large part because securing a dominant position in the market promises outsize financial rewards.

 

Here I would interject to mention a book by French economist Thomas Philippon, “The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets,” which documents this very trend.

His thesis is that over the past 20 years or so, American industries are increasingly dominated by fewer, larger corporations that exercise greater market power. Reduced competition leads to slower productivity growth, less innovation, and greater inequality of wealth.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming…

  • As the large grew increasingly entrenched, they sucked up talent and resources, crowding out the little guys.
  • Startups represent a declining share of all companies in the U.S. and many other industrialized economies. 
  • Before the pandemic, the U.S. was generating startups — and shutting down established companies — at the slowest rates since at least the 1970s.
  • The number of publicly traded U.S. companies had fallen by nearly half, to around 4,400, since the peak in 1996.
  • And many of them started running up massive debts, in part as a desperate effort to grow in the shadow of the giants.
  • Today an astonishing number of the survivors are, quite literally, creatures of credit.
  • In the 1980s, only 2% of publicly traded companies in the U.S. were considered “Zombies,” a term used by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for companies that, over the previous three years, had not earned enough profit to make even the interest payments on their debt.
  • The zombie minority started to grow rapidly in the early 2000s, and by the eve of the pandemic accounted  for 19% of U.S.-listed companies. …
  • With every crisis, more of these creatures of debt survive. …
  • Each new U.S. recession has been met with more bailouts and easy money, leading to a lower rate of corporate defaults.
  • Over the last 20 years, the falling default rate has also closely mirrored the slowdown in U.S. productivity. …
  • “Zombie congestion” in any industry lowers the productivity of rival companies — and blocks the entry of new companies — by raising labor costs and making it difficult to attract capital. …
  • The question is how much further capitalism will be deformed by government intervention on this scale.
  • When government is willing to buy just about anything, it distorts market prices, which normally guide people to buy into profitable, promising companies.
  • Now investors are simply buying what the Fed buys.
  • The process of competitive capital allocation, which is critical to raising productivity, has broken down. …
  • Governments need to recognize that constant intervention to prop up the economy and financial markets is not achieving its intended purpose.
  • After 2008, the Fed and the Treasury were praised to the moon for “saving the world,” but the Fed’s “experimental” forays into quantitative easy continued long after the crisis was over. …
  • Its interventions are doing more to boost the stock market than the real economy. …
  • Easy money is … inflating stock and bond prices, encouraging inefficient firms to take on more debt, and seeding financial instability.

 

Unless the Fed drastically shifts course — at the expense of considerable pain, analogous to the sharp “Volker recession” that broke the back of inflation in the 1970s and early ’80s — the United States can look forward to increasingly concentrated industries dominated by fewer big companies, more debt-ridden zombie companies, lower productivity growth, less innovation, slower wage growth, and a host of other ills.

Sadly there is no sign that America’s political class — much less our president, who has agitated for more cheap, easy  money — is remotely aware of the damage that Fed policy is doing to the economy.

Without such awareness, there is zero chance of that policy changing.

 

How to reverse the productivity slowdown

Thought-provoking views follow from Alistair Dieppe,  Lead Economist in the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank – he considers how global economies got to their current low point, and then ventures some broad solutions, but one has to question who will act on them and be able to make the big quantifiable productivity improvements needed by people everywhere, especially the poverty-stricken

 

There has been a broad-based slowdown in labor productivity growth since the 2007-09 global financial crisis that is likely to be compounded by the effects of the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic may leave lasting economic scars through multiple channels, including lower investment, erosion of human capital due to job destruction and loss of schooling, and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These setbacks are likely to further delay convergence of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) to advanced economy productivity levels and will have profound, and worrisome, implications for poverty alleviation efforts.

To rekindle productivity growth, a comprehensive broad-based approach will be necessary (and there’s the rub).

First, consider the facts

 

1. The productivity slowdown since the 2007-2009 crisis has been steep and prolonged

The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Second World War – (some say it’s the worst for 300 years)

This follows the steepest, longest, and broadest multi-year slowdown in labor productivity following the 2007-09 global financial crisis.

Since the global financial crisis, improvements in many key correlates (a new one on me) of productivity growth have slowed or gone into reverse

Overall:

  • Working-age population growth has decelerated
  • Educational attainment has stabilized
  • The pace of expansion into more diverse and complex forms of production has lost momentum as the growth of global value chains has stalled.

At the sectoral level:

  • Labor reallocation to more productive sectors from less productive ones has also weakened since the global financial crisis
  • Mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 may slow the reallocation of workers to higher-productivity firms from lower-productivity ones
  • Steep income losses and disruptions to education could cause an erosion of human capital.

 

3. COVID-19 is only the latest in a series of shocks that have dampened productivity
Over the past decade, the global economy has been buffeted by a series of shocks of which COVID-19 is only the latest.

Natural disasters, wars, and major economic disruptions such as financial crises and deep recessions tend to be accompanied by declines in labor productivity.

(En passant, one has to wonder how well prepared we are for the next pandemic – including one maybe caused by some nutter having noted the global scale of the financial and human chaos an invisible, unknown, virulent germ can cause)

 

4. Effects of COVID-19 on productivity will likely be drawn out

In addition to the health crisis, the uncertainty about the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic will weigh on investment and hinder trade and foreign direct investment.

Previous epidemics left lasting scars on labor productivity (causing a 4% cumulative decline after three years).

COVID-19 will likely compound the erosion caused by an undercurrent of weakening fundamental drivers of productivity growth.

 

5. The productivity gap between developing and advanced economies may be harder to narrow

  • The pace of convergence of EMDEs has slowed since the global financial crisis.
  • Output per worker in EMDEs remains less than one-fifth of that in advanced economies on average.
  • In low-income countries (LICs), the corresponding figure is just one-fiftieth.

 

EMDEs with a strong foundation of education provision, institutional strength, and more diverse production structures have had relatively faster convergence to advanced-economy productivity levels.

However, countries seeking to replicate earlier successes, or continue along rapid convergence paths, face a range of headwinds, including a more challenging environment to gain market share in manufacturing production as well as to deepen global value chain integration.

 

6. Deceleration of Productivity Growth Will Impede Development Goals

The likely adverse impact of the pandemic on productivity is of concern because labor productivity growth is the main source of lasting per capita income growth, which is in turn the primary driver of poverty reduction.

The broad-based productivity growth slowdown is likely to impede progress toward development goals, and the global recession triggered by COVID-19 may amplify many of these headwinds.

 

7. Policies can boost productivity

To rekindle productivity growth, a comprehensive approach is necessary:

  • To facilitate investment in physical and human capital
  • To encourage reallocation of resources toward more productive sectors and enterprises
  • To foster firm capabilities to reinvigorate technology adoption and innovation.

 

The pandemic may encourage the adoption of new technologies and accelerate the automation of production. However, polices are needed to ensure these productivity gains are evenly distributed.

In addition, steps are needed to limit the damage of adverse events:

  • Countries with ample fiscal space and transparent governance are better able to provide reconstruction effects, and to use it efficiently and in a timely manner as well as to support vulnerable sectors with policies that can boost long-term productivity growth
  • Well-designed policies and regulations concerning the prudent management of financial institutions, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the likelihood and impact of adverse shocks.

How a Fully Distributed Company Keeps Its Team Engaged

Mullenweg lives in Houston while overseeing a fully distributed team of about 1,100 employees operating in 77 cities around the world.

During a Real Talk Business Reboot webinar on Wednesday, Mullenweg told Inc. editor-at-large Tom Foster that any person, or company, can adjust to post-office-life if they try – “It can work for everyone, but I’ve seen people give up before they’re there,” he said.

Working outside of the office, Mullenweg explained, has “an incredible impact on the individuals,” and ultimately empowers them to lead richer lives. “That leads them to be able to bring more creativity to the work.”
Here are more takeaways from their conversation:

Beware “false proxies.”

Asked how businesses can track the productivity of employees working from home, Mullenweg noted that even in the office “measuring productivity is actually really, really hard.”

“It’s way easier to slack off in the office as opposed to home,” he continued. “When you’re working from home, and all your colleagues are seeing are the results of your work, if you don’t do the work, it’s very obvious.”

Mullenweg considers certain habits employees may use to signal hard work in a traditional office environment – showing up early and staying late, for example – as “false proxies,” saying that “where you work and how you work don’t really matter.”

The most important thing: “Can you create something great in an amount of time?”

Make meetings worth the time.

While most meetings aren’t great, Mullenweg said, “a great in-person meeting is a little better than a great remote meeting, but not much.”

Here are Mullenweg’s tips for effective meetings:

  • Have a clear agenda.
  • Invite the right number of people and no more.
  • Ensure no distractions or people looking at their phones.
  • Make sure it lasts as long as needed and has some outcome.

Mullenweg is also a fan of meetings with some movement:

  • When he can be in person, he likes to walk and talk.
  • When he’s remote, he suggests meeting participants get good headphones and meet on the go.

Find the tools that work for your company.

According to Mullenweg, Automattic barely uses email except to communicate with people outside the company. Instead, the team uses an in-house blogging platform called P2, which it’s beginning to make available to other companies.

Blogging “really elevates the written word and allows writing to be the way of collaborating,” Mullenweg says. It also cuts back on the interruptions from email and Slack notifications.

That’s not to say Automattic doesn’t use the popular chat app – Mullenweg said he was an early adopter of Slack and cites it, along with Zoom, Google Docs, and other apps, as part of a functioning distributed workflow. Ultimately, it’s about “whatever is effective for y’all,” Mullenweg said. “It’s all about managing these tools so they don’t manage you.”

Create a distributed culture.

“Your culture is not the Ping-Pong table,” Mullenweg says.

Instead, it can be found in the principles and values of your company. Even without an office and in-person meetings, those can and should be shared.

“My belief is that your culture is always happening,” Mullenweg says. Working from home under extraordinary circumstances for the foreseeable future, that’s something to keep in mind.

Next CBI boss finds ray of hope in coronavirus crisis

A dash of optimism from NEIL CRAVEN for the MAIL ON SUNDAY – however, given the track record of the CBI and ‘Be the Business’ summarised below and their evident failure to date to improve UK productivity, we note the lack of practical support and ideas for UK managers in the following piece- but nevertheless wish the new man every success

 

 

Danker, who joins the CBI in November replacing Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, has spent the past three years spearheading an organisation charged with solving Britain’s productivity crisis ‘from the bottom up’ – he admits that this is an issue on which ‘Britain hasn’t done very well for the past 12 years’ since the 2008 financial crash.

‘Most of the policy levers weren’t fixing the problem, or would take a generation to take effect,’ says Belfast-born Danker, currently chief executive of Be The Business, a Government and industry-funded body, with a mandate to improve productivity – he names infrastructure spending and improving skills as two important, but slow-burning, boosters for productivity.
His conclusion? ‘Government can’t fix the productivity problem; business has to.’
The figures are stark – a report in February detailed how the slowdown in productivity over the past decade – measured as economic output per worker per hour – has been the worst since the industrial revolution began 250 years ago. Economists worry that sluggish productivity growth, barely above zero and more pitiful even than in the 1970s, has held back improvement in living standards in the UK.

Two thirds of firms have changed their approach to technology since March, according to a Be The Business study – a third have adopted new technologies or intend to ‘soon’. As well as video conferencing, that includes project management and customer relationship management systems, e-commerce, cloud-based HR and data analysis software.

 

Any gains are likely to be masked by huge drops in overall economic output. But Danker wants to turbocharge the revolution, tying up with Facebook to encourage small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to learn from each other. A regional roadshow – digital, of course – targeting 11 big cities is to follow soon.

 

‘What’s really interesting about the last three months, talking to business owners, is that they have exerted more leadership in decision making than in years – they are also ferocious about finding productivity gains – cutting costs, being smarter about the use of premises, thinking about tech. I think that’s the low hanging fruit – and there’s a lot of money in it.’

 

But he says: ‘Now there is a set of really complicated decisions for each of these firms as we restart – harder than lockdown – don’t underestimate what a big deal this is – there are 1.4million small business owners with some big calls. I think they are going to make the decisions that affect employment and they are going to be the judge of whether or not anything the Chancellor does has worked.’

 

Danker reels off anecdotes from small firms he’s spoken with – a Cornish pub, a Cumbrian manufacturer, an HR consultancy – with myriad conundrums. But he suggests: ‘There’s a realisation now how much SMEs are the backbone of the economy – 60% of private sector employment and even greater outside the South East.’

He says a 10% rise in productivity in the smallest 75% of all firms – the ‘long tail’ – could add £130 billion to the economy. ‘I’m not pretending that’s easy but you just need tar manufacturers to be better tar manufacturers. We need to help hospitality businesses find a path back to growth. ‘Three years ago we were talking of the importance of high growth sectors – life sciences, high tech – now I think we’ve realised that the high employment sectors of retail, construction, hospitality – these are vitally important sectors to the economy, to recovery, to jobs.’

 

With a cautious nod to his agenda in his next role, which he joins at a pivotal time, he suggests Government needs to be sensitive to the slow awakening from lockdown many small firms face. He says: ‘It’s why organisations will talk of a tapered end to support rather than a sudden end to lockdown. Restarting is complicated – cost comes back straight away but demand doesn’t – if the Chancellor is to proceed with a levelling-up agenda that’s only about public investment it won’t be enough.’

 

He says business sector recovery needs to reach those parts of the country which have the lowest productivity and high unemployment, adding: ‘London has superb levels of productivity but it’s the regional economies that have fallen behind – the risk is they fall behind more.’

Can COVID-19 solve the UK productivity puzzle?

A thought-provoking article in Raconteur by Nick Easen

It’s no wonder the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane called it the “single most pressing issue” for the UK economy prior to the pandemic.

However, if you take the long view, this great reset has the potential to boost the output that a British worker could generate and increase productivity. There are parallels in history.

The Great Depression of the 1930s, when a quarter of the US workforce were out of work, was also a time of rapid automation. It saw the fastest productivity growth in American history. Yet President Roosevelt at the time tried to slow down the pace of automation with a bill that included 36 restrictions on machines.

“Just over half the jobs in the United States today are possible to perform at distance with digital technology,” says Frey. “The coronavirus will accelerate digitalisation and automation. Businesses want to cut costs during downturns. This also spurred automation during the financial crisis and contributed to a jobless recovery. Today, cash-strapped consumers also trade down to cheaper, less labour-intensive goods and services, which also increases the level of automation in the economy.

“Looking forward, ecommerce, telemedicine and online learning are likely to finally fulfil the productivity promise of the internet, which has been disappointing so far. Estimates also show that high-income earners are five times more likely to be able to work during the pandemic, while we find low-income jobs are at much higher risk of automation.”

Upskilling the workforce is crucial

More low-skilled jobs could evaporate after the pandemic subsides. Retraining will be crucial. Yet companies will be in a perilous state after lockdown. With high levels of indebtedness, many won’t have enough money to invest in skills, training, capital equipment or automation. However, those companies that do invest could be longer-term winners.

“New technology adoptions really require initial investment upfront and changes in business models. During this crisis, businesses are unlikely to be in the position to do this due to financial pressure and uncertainty,” says Dr Jun Du, professor of economics at Aston Business School.

“As a nation, developing automation technologies to replace low skills and retraining workers into higher-skilled work would be a sensible strategy. This crisis will continue to push many people out of jobs. This is a golden opportunity to retrain them to prepare for that future.”

With record low interest rates and strong government assistance, nimble businesses could look to save costs elsewhere and invest in upskilling their workforce, as well as digitalising further. This could be transformative for the UK and increase productivity.

“Lockdown has created legitimacy for certain ways of doing things now that we thought would never be productive, for example the assumption that our working culture is based on a need for people to have a physical space where they must be monitored physically to be productive. Coronavirus has forcefully shaken up this concept,” says Sahasranamam at the University of Strathclyde.

“A big benefit could be savings in capital expenditure and real-estate costs. Businesses won’t have to expand office spaces or have an office at all. Employees no longer have to work and live in high-priced, real-estate congested cities either and they will also save on commuting time.”

A catalyst to increase productivity?

The pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of overstretched, globally expansive, just-in-time supply chains or call centres in the Philippines or India. This could lead companies to onshore business, with a 21st-century digitalised focus and upskilled workforce. Corporates are already getting a taste of what consumers expect. Some will want to go further.

“In this locked-down environment, productivity is being boosted in various sectors through the use of automation to deliver savings and time back to businesses so staff can be liberated to refocus on delivering higher value,” explains Peter Walker, chief technology officer, Europe, Middle East and Africa, at Blue Prism, a robotic process automation software developer.

“The key challenge for organisations will be to strategically adopt automation solutions to make the enterprise smarter, more agile or efficient rather than focusing on short-term tactical savings.”

If British grandparents in their 70s and 80s aren’t now afraid of digitalised services from banking to online grocery shopping, nor should unions, businesses or employees be. COVID-19 reset is occurring right before our eyes. It is also happening globally, even in China and elsewhere in Asia, where labour is a lot cheaper.

If the pandemic can be used as a reason to get more people to use more sustainable forms of transport, such as bicycles and walking, or tackling the climate crisis, it could also be used as a catalyst to increase productivity in the UK.

“The main risk to any coming productivity revival is a Luddite backlash against automation, in which fears over its immediate social costs end up denying us its long-run benefits,” Oxford University’s Frey concludes.

Tolerance is good for all

Given the current demonstration marches ongoing worldwide following the shocking killing of George Floyd, there are many issues being raised to be faced by all – and, in particular, as far as this website is concerned, by many people at work regarding how they treat each other there:

  1. The overall mantra should be ‘ALL lives matter, regardless of colour’ – but that would be unlikely to lead to any change
  2. Inequality has always existed, and always will – each of us is different and should be proud of it                                  
  3. However, inequality of opportunity is the problem – ‘class and club’ systems, not merit, still ensure far too many ‘better’ jobs go to such ‘better’ people – whole swathes of society are thus prevented from climbing ladders too far
  4. If you are to build an efficient and effective team, organisation, even nation, all members must treat each other as equals who just have different jobs
  5. N.B. ‘You can do what I cannot do – I can do what you cannot do – together, we can do great things’ said Saint Mother Teresa of Calcutta
  6. In particular, managers of teams must always act with ‘tolerance of others’ – difficult though many will find this versus their daily back-stabbing, competitive rivalry, data-hoarding and power-politicking activities – and there’s the rub!  

Hence, they might well consider the following anecdote told by Nelson Mandela:

“After I became president, I asked one day some members of my close protection to stroll with me in the city, have lunch at one of its restaurants. We sat in one of the downtown restaurants and all of us asked for some sort of food.”

“After a while, the waiter brought us our requests, I noticed that there was someone sitting in front of my table waiting for food”

I told one of the soldiers: “Go and ask that person to join us with his food and eat with us”.

The soldier went and asked the man so. The man brought up his food and sat by my side as I asked and began to eat. His hands were trembling constantly until everyone had finished their food and the man went.

The soldier said to me: “The man was apparently quite sick. His hands trembled as he ate!”

“No, not at all,” I said.

“This man was the guard of the prison where I was jailed. Often, after the torture I was subjected to, I used to scream and ask for a little water. The very same man used to come every time and urinate on my head instead”.

“So I found him scared, trembling, expecting me to reciprocate now, at least in the same way, either by torturing him or imprisoning him as I am now the president of the state of South Africa.”

“But this is not my character nor part of my ethics”

“The mentality of retaliation destroys states, while the mentality of tolerance builds nations.*

Dramatically improve customer service so as to cut costs

I have no connection with John Seddon and his Vanguard consultancy company – indeed, many moons ago, I worked for one of the ‘big consultancies’ that he criticises so much in his books and the following podcast – nevertheless, I have long since thought he peddles powerful ‘productivity improvement advice’ which produces astonishing results, in stark contrast to the management fad failures forever being rolled out by others e.g. Total Quality Management, BPR,  Balanced Scorecards, Lean, Agile – frankly, I’m amazed that his ideas have not become much more popular with all businesses, especially services in both the private and public sectors – decades ago, it used to be said that a manager would never get fired if he chose IBM as his supplier – nowadays, it seems the same attitude applies  as managers blinkeredly follow each other when they ‘need to do something’ and buy whatever the ‘big consultancy boys’ are peddling at the time

The following was in an email which introduced Seddon’s podcast

The last few years have seen a rush to digital services, but how well is it going? In this podcast John Seddon illustrates the two big mistakes being made with the rush to digital, which result in poor-quality services and higher costs, and he explains how to approach digital services to ensure they work brilliantly for customers (and cost a lot less).

You can listen for free: https://www.patreon.com/posts/john-seddons-36199816

Hang on in there – listen again to make sure you understood what is being said – then change your ways, or stick!

Why working from home is bad for productivity

An interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald by James Adonis, somewhat contradicting what many managers are starting to believe

They’re no doubt already preparing themselves for the inevitable conversation with the boss. If working from home has been OK during months of social distancing, why not make it permanent? After all, there’s little arguing with decades of research demonstrating the benefits that accrue such as lower absenteeism, less staff turnover, stronger job satisfaction and greater productivity.
Wait a second. Greater productivity?
Well, according to a fresh study, that doesn’t actually appear to be the case. The scholars analysed the performance of nearly 9000 employees in more than 800 teams working for 250 organisations across nine countries to test their theory that the lack of social interaction among employees is detrimental to their productivity.
Writing in the New Technology, Work and Employment journal, the researchers go further by stating “even a small amount of working from home, less than one day a month, negatively affects employee performance”.

That’s because much of the knowledge, information and assistance people depend on is cultivated by the spontaneous and informal conversations they have with colleagues in shared workspaces, the absence of which diminishes their efficiency. It requires extra effort to access those essential resources when each team member is in a different location.

To determine the impacts on productivity, the scholars took into account not only the managers’ perceptions but also what the employees themselves had to say about their own performance:
  • That performance worsens when it’s not just the employee working from home but their colleagues as well.
  • If it’s happening more than one day a week, they are 70% less likely to receive a positive evaluation when compared to teams where everyone’s in the office.
The solution is not that working from home should be discouraged or prohibited. It’s more so an evidence-based lesson to be conscious that interaction has to be ramped up the more that employees are adopting what is an in-demand work arrangement, one that’s clearly here to stay.

“Employees do not exist in a vacuum as they work,” conclude the researchers. Irrespective of erroneous managerial interpretations, it’s tougher for colleagues to build effective relationships when they don’t see each other frequently enough and it’s challenging for them to notice a teammate has a problem when they can’t observe the signs that indicate they need support.

While many business professionals believe web conferencing can bridge that gap, the results of this study reveal the opposite to be true, that “digital presence cannot really compensate” for what is a fundamental human need: the need to interact in real life with other human beings.

CBI a closed-shop for McKinsey alumni?

The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) claims to be the UK’s largest employers’ group, although the IoD (Institute of Directors) might dispute this claim – they assume to be the mouthpiece for British management, forever putting their views for change to the UK government

They have just announced that Tony Danker – apparently ‘a business productivity chief’ – is to be their next director-general,  replacing Carolyn Fairbairn as CBI head at the end of this year – Danker is currently the chief executive of ‘Be the Business‘, a strangely-named non-profit business organisation set up to help drive productivity in the UK by Charlie Mayfield  (ex McKinsey), the former John Lewis chairman.

So how successful has this business productivity chief been in his current role as head of this ‘Productivity Leadership Group’ (PLG)?

Official UK productivity has stalled over the last two years or so since its inception – and we are unaware of any quantified claims for any productivity improvements made by the PLG – and that was before the pandemic struck

And how effective has another ‘productivity chief’, current Director-General, Carolyn Fairbairn, been over the last five years given, early in her CBI reign, she stated that her top priority was ‘to make a positive impact on productivity’?

Again, official UK productivity has stalled over her time in charge – albeit causes of this stagnation are now called a ‘puzzle’

So, taking a longer view, ask just what difference the CBI, our self-appointed productivity leaders, have made to UK productivity ever since the national study I led in 1987, with CBI support – the first of its kind – which focussed on determining the UK’s current productivity level, the need to ‘close the gap’ with our G7 competitors, and ways to go about it

Sadly, the result over the subsequent 30 plus years is ‘the UK productivity gap remains largely unchanged’ and our productivity growth rates have even trended downwards

Nevertheless,  gongs have been dished out to nearly all CBI bosses over this same period, regardless of this record, viz:

  • Sir John Banham (ex McKinsey)
  • Sir Howard Davies (ex McKinsey)
  • Lord Adair Turner (ex McKinsey)
  • Lord Digby Jones
  • Sir Richard Lambert
  • John Cridland (why not Sir?)
  • Dame Carolyn Fairbairn (ex McKinsey)
  • Tony Danker (ex McKinsey) – a knighthood pending, surely?

So what are the common features between these heavyweights that distinguish them from we mere mortals? – certainly, they’re all bright, they can all ‘talk the talk’, they know management and consultant-speak backwards, they sound and look good on the telly or public platforms

But we also find five of the last eight DGs are ex McKinsey consultants, a consultancy renowned for recruiting the best of the best – but one also steeped more in strategic and structural business issues rather than the practical needs of productivity improvement and obtaining quantifiable results

The fact is official UK statistics suggest national productivity performance levels have been poor over the last 30 plus years – waste is still rife, existing resources could be used a lot better and new investment in new technology has been far too little – and this applies to all private and public sector organisations – and the CBI, in its role as a productivity leader, must bear much responsibility – but when do we hear the them banging any of these three drums of potential, especially the first two? – indeed, ask which of their services or website pages advise on action needed for major productivity improvements?

The mantra for the post pandemic  ‘new norm’ UK economy must surely be ‘outputs matter most, not inputs’ – and if our productivity leaders can’t produce the results needed, then others should be given a chance to do so, and be rewarded accordingly

So, let the last words go to Karan Bilimoria, the Cobra Beer boss, who is expected to succeed Tesco chairman John Allan as CBI president: “Tony has the experience and skills needed to help lead the CBI in what will then be a critical term ahead as Britain recovers from this shock and returns to growth and competitiveness.”

We sincerely hope Karan is right, and wish Tony well as DG, albeit hoping he will break the mould and make a positive difference

5 Questions About China That Boards Should Be Asking Right Now

Another thought-provoking  HBR article follows, this time by William J. Holstein and Roger M. Kenny

 U.S.-China relations have not been so tense since before President Jimmy Carter and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping agreed to exchange ambassadors in 1979. Attitudes have hardened especially in the last two months, in part because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and in part because of the troubling developments in Hong Kong. Some voices in the Washington establishment are even advocating a “decoupling” of the deep, complex business connections between the two countries that have been built up over decades.

Because many U.S. companies give their China operations a large measure of autonomy, top management and boards often do not have a good grasp of the risks they face. Based on a review of 75 confidential board assessments conducted over the past 15 years, we can report that almost no board possesses a complete picture of its company’s operations in Greater China, including Hong Kong. Management may make presentations about international sales in general, but very few details about China surface at the board level.

When business was prospering in China, boards could afford to turn a blind eye to the details. But that’s a mistake now, given the impending storm clouds. Disruptions in their access to the Chinese market or in their supply chains and procurement channels would spell disaster for many companies, including household names such as General Motors, Apple, and Intel.

To understand their China risks, U.S. executives and boards need to start a discussion. As we see it, the agenda should include the following five questions:

Are we too dependent on Chinese supply chains?

There has been a great deal of talk about reducing U.S. dependence on China That’s why some companies have moved some of their production to Vietnam or Mexico. But these have been relatively small in scale and significant moves to “re-shore” manufacturing from China to the United States would be expensive and difficult, partly because of a shortage of skilled manufacturing workers in the United States. Any such move also would risk backlash from Chinese authorities.

What’s more, China has cornered the market in many critical components. As New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo found in seeking to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic, crucial reagents for testing kits come from only one place: China. Certain kinds of masks and protective gear come from only one place: China. Nearly every computer and smart phone in use in the United States comes from China or at least has some component in it that is manufactured in China.

Perhaps even more seriously, China dominates production of many of the critical raw materials that go into the products of the new economy – from smartphones to wind turbines. These include critical “rare earth minerals” like yttrium (used for charging electronic devices like smartphones), cerium and lanthanum (used for touch screens), and neodymium (used in electric car batteries).

Are we too dependent on sales to China?

If a company has a significant percentage of its sales in China, say 10–20%, it obviously is going to fight, on all levels, to maintain those sales. In many cases that will mean the company cannot maintain critical distance from the Chinese government.

But closeness to the Chinese government could create problems elsewhere, including the domestic U.S. market. “Do CEOs and boards really want to help the Chinese smother Hong Kong, erase Xinjiang and Tibet and sink all the non-Chinese fishermen in the South China Sea?” asks Clyde Prestowitz, author of the forthcoming book, The World Turned Upside Down: China, America and the Struggle for Global Leadership. “At some point, it seems to me, that kind of acquiescence is bound to look pretty bad.”

The risk is especially serious for companies like American semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia, which provides products used in facial recognition technology that could be used by the Chinese government to enable human rights violations.

What is our exposure to legal changes in Hong Kong?

China is signaling that it intends to introduce its own version of justice in the former British colony, which hosts the Asian regional headquarters for many American companies. Tens of thousands of Americans live there. Hong Kong is critically important for many U.S. companies because of their partnerships and relationships with Hong Kong Chinese players, who help them navigate their way in China itself. Some companies have located IP and other sensitive financial and legal functions in Hong Kong, in large part because Hong Kong law affords businesses stronger legal protection and property rights, which could be compromised.

If the legal system in Hong Kong deteriorates, as seems inevitable, a financial analyst working in Hong Kong for a Wall Street firm might come under pressure from mainland authorities for writing a negative research report about a Chinese state-owned enterprise. International companies could also be pressured to make management changes, of the sort already imposed on some Hong Kong corporations; last year the Chinese government forced the ousting of two senior executives of Cathay Pacific airlines for issues related to support of the pro-democracy movement by Cathay employees.

The possibility also looms that Hong Kong Chinese, Chinese, or even Chinese Americans working for U.S. companies in Hong Kong could be detained or arrested. “The people of Hong Kong should prepare to cope with the varieties of arbitrary detention that have been inflicted on compatriots elsewhere in China,” Jerome Cohen, director of the U.S.-Asia Law Institute at New York University, recently wrote.

Finally, if the Trump administration concludes, as the president has announced, that Hong Kong no longer has a high degree of autonomy from China, then the U.S. Congress may withdraw the island’s current special status as a privileged trading partner. This would mean, amongst many other things, that tech exports from the United States, which now flow freely to Hong Kong, would be subjected to the same export controls as on goods shipped to China and the Hong Kong dollar would no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar. Depending on the details of what Congress and the Administration enact, U.S. travelers to Hong Kong might also require visas, which they currently do not.

How much should we collaborate with Chinese companies?

In the open international research environment that American scientists cherish, U.S.-based researchers often collaborate remotely with Chinese counterparts. That could prove problematic, because the findings and insights they share may go further than their research partners in view of the Chinese government’s civil-military “fusion.”

“Should American researchers be working with Chinese researchers on such technologies as facial recognition technology in low-light environments?” Samm Sacks, a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and a cybersecurity policy fellow at New America, asked on a recent Zoom call sponsored by the U.S.-Asia Law Institute. “I think probably not … How do you know that your technology is not being used, even indirectly, to incarcerate hundreds of thousands of Uighurs?”

China also has a track record of research espionage: the Ministry of State Security is known to have targeted Chinese and Chinese-American employees at U.S. companies to obtain access to their technology or to penetrate their companies’ decision-making process. American law obviously prevents companies from discriminating against people on the basis of their ethnicity, but there are policies and procedures that can be put in place to better safeguard IP and key decisions. One practical but costly step would be asking all employees to disclose international travel, disclose other sources of income and reveal contacts with foreign governments.

How secure are our company’s IT systems?

It’s not just approaches to their people that companies have to watch for. In 2018, Bloomberg Businessweek published an article revealing that China’s People’s Liberation Army had covertly installed  microchips in components that had been sourced from China for use in IT products used by many companies internally, including Apple, which vehemently disputed the report.

China’s software hacking capabilities are also highly sophisticated, as evidenced by the work of the state-sponsored APT10 group in Tianjin (APT stands for Advanced Persistent Threat), which was able to penetrate American cloud computing systems and remain inside them for four years, as disclosed by the Department of Justice in December 2018.

APT10, which federal officials said was acting in concert with the Chinese government, was able to penetrate the systems of dozens of companies and government agencies in at least 12 countries, as documented in a book recently published by one of us (Holstein), The New Art of War: China’s Deep Strategy Inside the United States. Other recent disclosures suggest that government-affiliated groups in China have developed malware that can be attached to Microsoft Word documents and is virtually undetectable.

Our confidential soundings suggest that some chief executive officers and their chief information officers have either chosen not to discover Chinese bugs or hackers or have been willing to accept the possibility that their systems have been compromised. The reason is that proofing their IT systems against intruders would cost millions of dollars and detract from short-term earnings. And if any breaches were to be disclosed publicly, that might irritate the Chinese government and call into question a company’s continued access to the Chinese market.

***

Responding to these issues will require sustained, structured discussions between entire boards and top managements. No single board committee can carry the full load. The issues extend beyond the ability of an audit committee, whose job is to focus on the numbers, which is only one part of the overall challenge. Human resource committees also need to be part of the equation to respond to the espionage risk. Compensation committees need to find creative ways of retaining top managers if quarterly and annual earnings begin to suffer. The discussions will also need to be held under the tightest security. Zoom calls are not a good idea. The goal should be to identify and manage issues before they explode into the public domain.


William J. Holstein, a former Editor-in-Chief of Chief Executive magazine, is a journalist and author.  His most recent book is The New Art of War: China’s Deep Strategy in the United States (Brick Tower Press, 2020)


Roger M. Kenny is managing partner of Kenny Boardroom Consulting, based in New York.

Chinese Companies’ Response to Covid-19

A very interesting article just published in the HBR by Das Narayandas, Vinay Hebbar and Liangliang Li – it offers many  lessons for western companies, big and small

 

The past four months have provided an opportunity to study a once-in-a-lifetime moment — how companies function during an unprecedented global pandemic while also navigating an accelerated shift to digital operations.

China was weeks ahead of the rest of the world in dealing with the pandemic and its fallout, so their experience is of interest. We conducted a series of 20 in-depth, in-person interviews, as well as a large-scale survey of more than 350 senior executives, to ascertain how the Chinese corporate world has adapted, innovated, survived — and even thrived — through this uncertain time. The companies we looked at, which ranged from state-owned enterprises to multinational corporations to local private companies, were forced to quickly:

  • Leverage digital technologies so that they could adapt and innovate
  • Try out novel business models
  • Stitch together solutions to address emerging and previously unrecognized customer needs
  • Develop new business processes and practices
  • Redefine models for collaboration and teamwork.

As China emerges from its Covid-19 lockdown, it is becoming clear that many of the challenges they faced are here to stay – and that some of the changes they introduced should be, as well.  We identified 11 lessons to help inform business leaders throughout the rest of the world.

1. Be transparent about your challenges.

Leaders in our survey who reported their firms had successfully managed the crisis told us they regularly kept their teams up to date on the state of their organizations, as well as the priorities and principles that would guide decisions at all levels. These leaders said they plan to sustain this higher level of transparency and information sharing going forward with more frequent, direct, frank, and personal communication.

For example, when asked during a meeting with employees why his company decided to shut down one of its global R&D centers, which symbolized the future of the business, the CEO of a major engineering and technology company replied: “If we cannot survive the next three months, we will have no future at all.”

The increased transparency wasn’t always easy. Multiple leaders told us that they felt their actions were under a microscope, with employees watching to see whether their behavior aligned with stated corporate values. They truly had to “walk the walk and talk the talk.”  They also had to accept that not all employees would be pleased with their decisions. But ultimately these leaders reported that the majority of employees adopted a feeling of “we are all in this battle together and fighting the same enemy” that seemed to exceed localized employee dissatisfaction.

2. Adopt new modes of communication.

Leaders we spoke with reported that communication during the pandemic, although less “in-person,” tended to be more personal. Many avoided email and used audio apps such as Dingtalk or WeChat instead, or internal apps developed to facilitate information sharing and employee interaction. Interestingly, a number of leaders of multinational companies said that they felt handicapped by the incompatibility of their global communication channels with some of the popular local communication technologies used by Chinese companies.

We were surprised to hear that virtual video meetings have continued to be the norm since the return of employees to the workplace — sometimes even when all attendees are physically present in the same office.

Many of the leaders we interviewed expect to convene fewer large, in-person gatherings and are planning more virtual events, believing them to be more efficient, direct, goal-oriented, and brief than in-person meetings. Most acknowledged, however, that video meetings are more intense and reduce opportunities for personal conversations and small talk, which have traditionally served to strengthen relationship bonds among colleagues.

3. Accelerate digital transformation.

The sudden, unforeseen economy-wide lockdown forced firms to switch literally overnight to completely digital models. Speed was of the essence: they needed to find creative solutions for emerging customer needs, overcome process barriers imposed by the lockdown, and find cost savings. Industries that would otherwise have taken years to realize their digital transformation agendas accelerated their efforts dramatically.

 

For example, New Oriental Group, a leading education company, had struggled for two years to convince parents, students, and educators to move to a live-streaming platform capable of supporting one million students simultaneously. The pandemic led to a rapid, widespread adoption of the platform — even in cities not previously served by the firm.

4. Re-organize to enhance decision making

Traditionally, decision making in Chinese companies has tended to be top-down with numerous reviews and approvals at many levels. During the Covid crisis, many of our respondents reported a diminished role for mid-level managers. Speeding up digital transformation led to automation of some routine activities across a broad set of business sectors.

Ping An Bank, for example, has taken its “data-oriented operation” to the next level, transforming its organization from the traditional hierarchical pyramid to a dumbbell-shaped organization by increasing the number of senior executives focused on digital transformation and IT; keeping the number of middle-level managers flat despite rapid growth; and expanding the scale of front line market-facing teams. The firm has encouraged senior leaders to directly manage larger front line teams using digital tools and data, changing their primary mode of working from “managing with experience” to “managing with data.” The firm’s business performance reached record high levels in April 2020 despite the crisis.

With leaders able to directly engage the entire organization through digital channels, mid-level managers were no longer vital communication conduits between leadership and the front line. Senior managers were forced to become more deeply involved in strategy and policy decisions to ensure a speedy response to rapidly shifting business conditions. A high degree of variation in local conditions, moreover, drove more real-time execution decisions by empowered front line teams closer to customers and more familiar with the local laws and conditions.

Yili Group, a leading dairy company, faced unprecedented logistics and transportation challenges during the shutdown. It had to reach out to farmers, milk factories, transportation companies, and local governments, as well as other partners in locations across the country, to keep the supply chain moving. Regional front line employees were authorized to take action to resolve unexpected problems such as road blocks, health checks for drivers, and community shutdowns.  This ensured that they were able to continue to deliver to even the most remote locations across China.

Leaders we interviewed believe that this reduction in organizational bureaucracy will facilitate increased collaboration and execution, crucial enablers of innovation at speed and scale.

5. Find new ways to collaborate.

Achieving desired changes in a timely manner often required collaborating in new ways with external partners, including customers, suppliers, regulators, and even competitors.

Movie studio Huanxi Media Group stood to lose millions on “Lost in Russia,” a film timed to release in theaters during the peak Chinese New Year holiday season. With movie theaters closed, the company struck a deal within 24 hours with Bytedance (owner of TikTok and other video streaming apps in China) to livestream this movie and other content across its platforms, earning Huanxi $91 million and netting the film more than 600 million views within two days.

Our respondents also noted the need for swift internal reorganizations with leaders and employees cutting across traditional silos to set up agile project teams to solve problems as they cropped up.

Trip.com Group, a leading travel agency, felt the impact of Covid-19 early, with millions of travelers cancelling their travel plans during the country’s peak travel season. Stepping up to the challenge, each department —IT, customer service, commercial, legal affairs, finance, and communications — played an important role in responding to the evolving situation. IT streamlined cancellation requests by developing a new “one-click” application, while the commercial team reached out to partners across the world to standardize cancellation policies for users. The communications department worked closely with IT to ensure the latest information and policies were made available to users in a timely fashion, while finance coordinated refunds to users. Throughout this, the facilities team worked to ensure the safety of employees who had to come into the office to access certain systems. This cross-departmental collaboration was critical in helping the firm respond, with its reputation intact.

We heard from many firms that leadership and HR are striving to sustain their newfound agility by redefining job responsibilities and work processes to encourage collaboration across functions.

6. Formalize and enable remote work.

Remote working was rarely practiced or supported in China prior to the pandemic.  Given that the 9-to-5 work day was unlikely to transfer from office to home environments, managers needed to accommodate, within reason, varying work schedules based on personal circumstances and constraints. More self-motivated and outcome-focused individuals were able to make the transition seamlessly, but others who were more comfortable operating in a traditional command-and-control mode needed training to be effective.

The Chinese division of Bosch, a global technology and services supplier, had to instill a new understanding of trust”, training its managers to work and manage remotely, and emphasizing a results-driven approach over the outmoded presence-driven model.

7. Support lifelong learning at scale.

Most of the leaders we interviewed believe that lifelong learning and a growth mindset will be crucial for employees of the future, especially as work continues to move on-line.

Because of reduced travel and better communication tools, many of the C-suite leaders in our study reported greater involvement as teachers and change managers within their organizations. They reported being actively engaged in developing talent and ensuring organizational alignment.

New Oriental, a private education provider, moved all of its training online, allowing the CEO and other executives to share their experiences directly with trainees across the country. The change worked out well. Previously, it was challenging to schedule in-person visits to employee training groups in local settings across the country.  Conducting training online from their homes or office removed this hurdle and enabled rapid scaling of this effort.

8. Rethink how you evaluate employee performance.

According to most of the leaders in our study, the pandemic presented a unique opportunity to observe how senior and mid-level managers responded to new challenges and allowed them to form preliminary judgments about managers’ future leadership potential.

The demands of crisis leadership forced leaders to delegate routine work to teams in order to refocus their own efforts on big-picture thinking. Top management was able to see which leaders busied themselves with routine work and failed to develop broader leadership competencies.

Moving down the chain, managers reported a shift to objective metrics, such as number of sales calls made, customer service calls attended, hours logged on, or tickets closed. They used online dashboards and digital data to assess staff workload and performance. However, the quest for daily objective measures risks overemphasizing short-term results. Daily dashboards should ideally be balanced with medium- to long-term, albeit perhaps less task-oriented, metrics. High levels of uncertainty and change, moreover, dictate that managers operate against agile, flexible goals rather than fixed targets.

9. Identify volunteer opportunities.

We heard repeatedly from leaders about the power of employing a “volunteering” approach to identify, motivate, and engage front line employees. Especially when confronting new business initiatives with social impact, they found that individuals assigned to a task did not operate with the same degree of willingness, ownership, and motivation as individuals who volunteered.

Yum China, a fast food chain that closed most of its outlets in Wuhan, decided to keep a few open to serve medical staff. Aware that some employees and their families would be concerned about the high risk of working at these outlets, the company decided to ask for volunteers, unsure whether they would get the requisite numbers. To their surprise, within two hours of putting the word out they had 900 volunteers, far exceeding requirements.

Several firms reported that their younger, digitally savvy employees subsequently shared touching videos of their volunteer efforts with friends and colleagues on platforms like TikTok, helping to boost team morale and allay the oppressive mood during difficult periods.

Multiple leaders reported plans to deploy future volunteer-led initiatives to identify and execute complex business model changes, enhance staff engagement, and support a more ambitious social impact agenda.

10. Help your employees build resilience.

Many of the leaders we surveyed reported that employees were experiencing high levels of anxiety and lack of motivation. This was particularly true of millennials whose careers had been fueled by the tailwinds of China’s meteoric and consistent growth over the past three decades; they are fearful that the future will be less bright, with growth opportunities significantly reduced relative to their parents’ generation.

11. Foster a more connected organization.

The leaders we spoke with expressed a near-universal agreement that the shared experience of coping with the pandemic had engendered higher levels of tolerance, patience, and empathy within their organizations. Seeing colleagues on video calls in their homes, dressed casually, with family members and pets making appearances, for example, made interactions more personal. Most organizations in our study anticipate greater cohesiveness and camaraderie among teams that worked together through the crisis.  

Planning for the Post-Covid World 

We identified two additional findings from our research. First, the market-leading firms in our study — which had strong reserves to weather the storm — actively invested in the short term with the sole focus of extending their long-term advantage over less endowed competitors. The leaders of these firms responded to tough times not by preserving resources, but by investing their reserves in strengthening their firms’ competitive position in the market.

Our second finding is that these firms were aggressively speeding up and expanding their digitization strategies, and implementing systems to ensure that new skills, practices, and behaviors are integrated into their organization’s muscle memory. They further recognized that considerable discipline will be required to ensure that employees do not revert to pre-crisis habits.

Covid-19 kickstarts gigification of knowledge work

The term “gig economy” was coined by the former New Yorker editor Tina Brown in 2009. It described how workers in the knowledge economy increasingly were pursuing “a bunch of free-floating projects, consultancies, and part-time bits and pieces while they transacted in a digital marketplace.”

The received wisdom of the time was that the gig economy would redefine white-collar jobs and call into question the very existence of professional service firms: Why would you need to hire a data analytics firm (or management consultancy) for a project  when you could have unrestricted access to a bunch of experts, connected by a digital platform with global reach, who could work together for you?

For a time, it certainly looked like things were headed that way: the Netflix million dollar challenge in 2009 for developing the best recommendation algorithm was won by a team that didn’t belong to a single firm — or even geography.

But Brown turned out to be only half right. There has been tremendous growth in the gig economy, but most of it can be attributed to unskilled work such as driving (Lyft and Uber), delivering (food, parcels, etc. through DoorDash, Postmates), and doing simple errands (TaskRabbit).

A vibrant gig economy for knowledge workers — engineers, consultants, management executives — has not really materialized (yet).

What Went Wrong?

The work of Nobel laureate Ronald Coase on transaction costs provides an explanation. According to his theory, now almost a century old, firms won’t be necessary if there are low costs (money or time) to a customer (individual or business) in searching for alternative providers, assessing their quality, contracting with them, and overseeing and coordinating their work. Clearly, if the work is simple, repeatable, standardized, easily measurable, and controllable, these costs will be low, which explains the success of gig platforms concentrating on work such as ride-sharing, accommodation, and deliveries, largely at the expense of the firms that used to perform these services.

But imagine you’re a U.S. citizen living in Singapore looking for tax advice. If you want to get this through the gig economy, you have two options:

  • Either find an accountant competent in both Singapore and U.S. taxation systems, which could be challenging
  • Or use two freelance accountants, one specializing in Singapore tax law and the other in American law.

 

If you choose option two, you’d need to make sure that the two coordinated properly with each other, which might not be easy. In either scenario, you’d have to find a way to figure out if they were as competent as they claimed to be, and you’d be responsible for drawing up the contract.

All of these relatively high transaction costs (search, coordination, and contracting) would largely fall away if you hired KPMG instead, which is precisely why firms like KPMG are still very much with us.

Is the persistence of these costs for high-end, complex services simply because the technology isn’t quite there yet? We don’t believe so:

  • New technologies have significantly lowered transaction costs across the board.
  • The unlocking of information flows due to the advent of Web 2.0 has significantly lowered the cost of finding a freelance service provider.
  • Digitization of knowledge work has allowed for more objective evaluation, which not only makes it easier to have more reliable customer feedback and ratings, but also makes it easier to create performance-based contracts.
  • Rapidly developing AI algorithms have the capability to help in cost-effective matching of demand with appropriately skilled individuals.
  • Products like Slack have the ability to significantly lower coordination costs.
  • And technologies like blockchain that enable smart contracts can significantly lower the costs of contracting.

 

Given all this, in order to understand why the knowledge-based gig economy hasn’t grown, we will need to look beyond technology and economics, and consider instead the role played by organization and culture.

The Culture Factor

Gig workers in the knowledge economy will have to work with and for firms that have pronounced values, incentives, practices, and preferences. But they do not assimilate easily into these organizations (unless they join them) as they often work at arms-length with them and are seen by people in the organizations as outsiders — or even threats —impeding effective cooperation and creating the potential for conflict. In this context, gig workers often struggle to understand, let alone accept, the larger organizational processes, people, and politics of many of the people they have to work with. Performance assessment may also be problematic, especially if the gig worker is hired by a firm to do a job that the traditional metrics of most organizations still cannot properly capture.

When you start listing these problems, it becomes less of a mystery why the firms still prefer to hire knowledge workers as full-time employees or other firms with knowledge workers rather than contract directly with gig workers, despite the ability of tech to reduce many of the more obvious costs.

This may, at last, be about to change. But not from the advent of any new technology — it’s from the global pandemic that is forcing the global economy to its knees. The organizational factors that act as barriers for knowledge-based gig work are the same ones that in the past have inhibited remote work by full-time employees. If these issues can be resolved, whether a remote worker is full-time or gig-based is simply a matter of contractual documentation. Clearly, the experience of working during the pandemic provides useful insights on how to successfully contract knowledge work to external contractors. But we need to approach these lessons carefully.

Knowledge work is not uniform and, to the extent that you can even talk this way, a given “unit” of knowledge work is itself highly complex. A university, for example, educates students for degrees. A unit, therefore, could be the degree that a student comes out with. But a lot of very different tasks go into creating that unit. So what does “gigification” mean in this context?

Universities could certainly consider using gig workers for graders, teaching assistants, or for pre-recorded online lectures. But it is unlikely that the majority of milestone classes (face-to-face or virtual) that need to be delivered live at specific moments will be delivered by gig workers. Since any degree will inevitably involve both kinds of classes, university teaching will always be hybrid between the two, at least at the course level, possibly even at the class level.

The lesson is that all knowledge-based work can be unpacked into a set of different tasks.

To figure out the future of the gig economy for knowledge workers, therefore, we need to analyze things at the task level rather than at the work level. We have found figuring out which kinds of tasks are amenable to gigification involves asking three basic questions about each knowledge-intensive task involved in delivering a product or service.

1. Is the task codifiable?

We first distinguish between structured tasks that can be easily specified and measured more objectively, and unstructured tasks that can’t be. Codifiable tasks are definitely contractable to gig workers, and the organizational processes that involve such types of tasks are usually easy to reengineer. Gigification of non-codifiable tasks is not straightforward and understanding which such tasks can enter the gig economy will involve answering the second question.

2. Is there a delay between value creation and value consumption?

In some tasks, value creation and consumption need to be simultaneous, such as when a physician conducts a patient’s physical exam. If such a task is customer facing, it is a big risk to “gigify” it, as these tasks have no possibility of quality checks and re-work. And if that customer is internal, a further layer of complication is added because dealing with internal customers usually requires a high degree of familiarity with the culture of an organization.

But for many tasks there is — or can be — a gap between creation and consumption of value.  For example, auditing a firm (value creation) and sharing the results with the board (value consumption) can happen at distinct points in time. In fact, a delay between the two instances is useful, as it provides a window of opportunity to insert a quality check process. Moreover, having such a delay makes it possible for the workflow to follow a more modular design, reducing the need for collaboration, and with it the need for a worker to understand the power and politics of the organization. All this, of course, means that the task will need to be reconfigured, which poses no mean challenge and brings us to the third question.

3. Can the task be done remotely?

Before the pandemic, the firms most comfortable with remote working were software companies like GitLab, which has more than 1,200 employees working remotely. GitLab has put together what it calls a “remote manifesto”, which identifies where remote practices differ from workplace ones. According to this document, remote working favors “flexible working hours over set working hours,” “writing down and recording knowledge over verbal explanations,” “asynchronous communication over synchronous communication.” Note that all these practices would be difficult to implement if there were no gap between the creation and consumption of value.

Before the pandemic, outside of the software industry, firms like GitLab were few and far between, which meant that there was a certain amount of risk to non-software firms in adopting approaches like GitLab’s. But the Covid-19 crisis has forced businesses in industries previously impervious to remote working to re-engineer their work processes and bolster their technology support systems, which have been the traditional barriers to alternate work arrangements.  This provides a wide variety of natural experiments, many of which are more relevant to a given firm’s need than the experience of software firms and will provide a good starting point to firms contemplating a switch to the gig economy model.

The Covid-19 epidemic could well prove to be a pivotal point in the gigification of knowledge work, and many firms will be attracted by the prospects of the direct and indirect cost savings that the gig economy model seems to offer.  But given the complexities of knowledge work there’s also a risk of overreach and wasted investment.  The simple task-based categorization we propose will help managers make smarter choices about  just what tasks should be contracted to gig workers.

Rebuilding the Economy Around Good Jobs

In countries hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, customer-facing service businesses don’t just face a tough two to three months; they face a tough two to three years. Because people will still be nervous about catching the disease until a vaccine is widely available, demand is likely to be depressed, while costs — due to measures needed to keep employees and customers safe — will be higher.

Making the challenge even tougher, many of these businesses rely on a “bad jobs” model for front-line workers whose hallmarks are low wages, low productivity, high turnover, and difficulty adapting to changing customer needs and technologies. Now more than ever, they need a new labor approach. They need a “good jobs” system that combines investment in people with operational choices in order to maximize employee motivation, contributions, and productivity.

Bad Jobs = Bad Performance  

As the tussle over federal pandemic assistance in the United States has made clear, many service companies, even those whose financials looked fine, were already in trouble. A big part of that trouble was a focus on labor-cost minimization, which led to low wages and benefits, inadequate staffing, and as few full-time positions as possible. In this “bad jobs” system, front-line employees are inadequately trained, often under-equipped, and disrespected. They can’t focus on the job when they constantly worry about paying medical bills or putting food on the table. They leave when there’s another job that pays $1 more an hour. Unit managers are busy fighting fires due to high turnover and operational problems, with too little time to develop staff and really manage the business. This bad jobs system keeps customers under-served (and, in some contexts puts them at risk), deprives the company of a compelling value proposition and prevents it from adapting to changing customer needs. Combined with a weak balance sheet these reasons drove many bankruptcies, including BordersToys “R” UsSears, and most recently Neiman MarcusJ. Crew, and J.C. Penney.

For retailers, there is an extra layer of post-pandemic danger. Lock-downs have forced a massive shift to online shopping. Some customers will go back to store shopping once they can, but many will have established new shopping habits. When stores reopen, retailers will need to adapt quickly to a new intensity of e-commerce, which comes with many operational challenges.

Further, the in-store experience will need to provide clear value that the customer cannot get online. That value requires capable and motivated workers whose work design enables them to serve customers well. The more their company invests in them through a good jobs system — with higher wages and benefits, more training, more hours and a regular schedule, a work design that maximizes employee productivity and contributions, and sufficient staffing — the more they will repay that investment through higher in-store sales and customer loyalty and improvements in products, services, and work processes. A bad jobs system that was muddling through before the pandemic may well fail under these new stresses.

A Moment for Change

The widespread use of the bad jobs system has long been a costly (and sometimes fatal) problem, but the pandemic offers a unique chance to do something about it. Why?

For a little while, there is a spotlight on front-line workers because so many have kept working — even at risk of their own infection — and kept so many useful parts of the economy running. At the same time, news coverage of strikes at meatpacking plants, Whole Foods, and Amazon has made customers aware of widespread bad working conditions. Customers may now find it unacceptable to buy from companies that treat their workers poorly — especially if there are competitors that offer just as low prices but also good jobs.

The bad jobs system is now going to prove fatal to many hard-hit companies if they don’t change. They’ll need their front lines fighting for them, working hard to serve every customer as well as possible, to improve every product, service, and process as much as possible, and to identify new ways to attract customers. They’ll need to be adaptable because so many things are going to be different in ways we can’t begin to predict.

One thing we can predict: Customers who are struggling economically will be looking more than ever for good value. This will give the companies that start building a good jobs system a competitive advantage over those that don’t. After the financial crisis of 2008, Mercadona — Spain’s largest grocery chain and a model good jobs company — reduced prices for its hard-pressed customers by 10% while remaining profitable and gaining significant market share. Hard work and input from empowered front lines had a lot to do with it.

The pandemic is likely to accelerate the ongoing shakeup of U.S. retailing. The United States has 24.5 square feet of retail space per person versus 16.4 square feet in Canada and 4.5 square feet in Europe. This is almost certainly too much and the mediocre — the ones that don’t make their customers want to keep coming back — will not survive.

There is an alternative: A good jobs system that has already proven successful. Long before the pandemic, there were successful companies — including Costco and QuikTrip — that knew their front-line workers were essential personnel and treated and paid them as such. Even in very competitive, low-cost retail sectors, these companies adopted a good jobs system and used it to win.

There’s a strong financial case for good jobs. Offering good jobs lowers costs by reducing employee turnover, operational mistakes, and wasted time. It improves service, which increases sales both in the short term and — through customer loyalty — in the long term. All these improvements can more than make up for the large investments in better wages, benefits, training, and scheduling. Indeed, in a recent paper, Hazhir Rahmanidad and I show that above-average wages can be a profit-maximizing approach even in low-cost service businesses. In addition, a good jobs system makes a company more resilient and more adaptive, as companies like Costco, Mercadona, QuikTrip, and H-E-B demonstrate. These qualities will be much called upon during and after the pandemic.

It Can Be Done

But is it possible to offer good jobs — to seriously increase labor spending and improve work — when companies are already in a financially precarious situation and when demand won’t snap back to normal for a while?

Yes, it is.

An extended period of low demand will actually make it easier to make and then tinker with operational changes with less risk. A period of low demand will also be a period of low performance pressure; Amazon, for example, just announced that it will likely make no money next quarter. These may be just the circumstances in which CEOs and boards can undertake a transition that will not boost earnings in the next quarter or two and explain why.

Granted, like most change efforts, it takes time to implement a good jobs system and to reap the benefits. But as the recent good jobs journey at Sam’s Club shows, smart sequencing of the changes can allow a company to make significant wage investments without raising prices or lowering profits. Sam’s Club raised the wages of thousands of employees from around $15 an hour to as high as $22 an hour. At the same time, they simplified operations by reducing their product variety by as much as 25% and redesigning work processes to make employees more productive and customers more satisfied. This is what made the higher wage investments possible for a retailer that already has tight profit margins. Mud Bay, a regional pet retailer, raised employee wages by 30% and significantly improved employee benefits while operating with less than 2% profit margins.

At a moment when trust in businesses and institutions is particularly low and when many criticize the gap between executive pay and workers’ pay, this is the time for more leaders to have the courage and commitment to rebuild their businesses with good jobs. We know now that they already have great people working for them.

Zeynep Ton is a professor of the practice at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and co-founder and president of the nonprofit Good Jobs Institute. She is the author of The Good Jobs Strategy: How the Smartest Companies Invest in Employees to Lower Costs and Boost Profits.

Will companies shift from China to India?

A tectonic shift in global business supply chains may be about to happen according to an article in the Harvard Business Review by Vijay Govindarajan and Gunjan Bagla

 

America’s (and other developed nations’) relationship with the two most populous countries in the world, China and India, is undergoing a stark, rapid and perhaps permanent transformation.

In April, a Pew Center survey found that two-thirds of Americans say they have an “unfavorable” view of China; according to Pew it was “the most negative rating for the country since the Center began asking the question in 2005.” But if China is falling in attractiveness, what is filling its place?

The answer, it seems, is India, where on the same day the Pew survey was released, Facebook, Inc. announced that it invested $5.7 billion into India’s largest telecom company, Reliance Jio, instantly valuing Jio to being among the top five companies in India, were it an independent entity.

That this investment happened during a time when both California and India were locked down with Covid-19-related “shelter-in-place” orders raised eyebrows in boardrooms and capital markets across the globe. Global deals between two large publicly traded entities typically require much travel, face to face contact and joint public appearances, but Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance, made this major announcement all alone from his home.

While the Facebook-Jio deal is largely digitally driven, we believe that 2020 could mark an inflection point in the bilateral trade of goods between the United States and India. The shift can be attributed — at least in part — to the stresses from Covid-19 and the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the Trump administration. Following our article on India as an attractive manufacturing destination, we look at India as a sourcing partner for goods, becoming a partial replacement for imports from China.

Exodus From China

Companies in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia have been hit with supply chain shocks as the flow of materials from China was disrupted by the pandemic. CEOs are confidentially asking their supply chain teams to develop additional sources that are completely independent of China. In addition, in the United States there is pressure from employees who are wary of traveling to China, from customers who are concerned (rationally or not) about the safety of foods and other items from the country, from investors who worry greatly about over-dependence on any one country, and increasingly from politicians as well as State Department leaders who want companies to rapidly decouple from China.

More than 20 years ago, electronics companies from Taiwan led the way into mainland China, but now in the wake of Covid-19 as Bloomberg reported in March 2020, “electronics makers are past the point of no return in their gradual migration from China.” Chinese billionaire Cao Dewang, of Fuyao Glass Industry echoed a similar thought in response to the pandemic, saying that “the global industrial chain will reduce its dependence on China.”

Why India?

In 2019, the United Stated imported a staggering $452 billion of goods from China. Only five low-cost countries have GDPs larger than that: India, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, and Thailand. India is the biggest economy among these candidates and has the largest untapped potential for filling part of the supply chain vacuum that is created by exodus from China.

In a recent virtual meeting with the American Chamber of Commerce in India, Thomas Vajda, deputy assistant secretary for South Asia was quite blunt. “India can quickly become a favorable jurisdiction for more of the industrial activities that are happening currently in China,” he told them according to The Economic Times.

Dr. Mukesh Aghi, CEO of the trade group, U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, declares “While U.S. companies are looking for alternatives to China, India becomes a natural destination. You have an English speaking workforce, highly skilled, the cost of labor is cheap and more important it is a growing market of 1.3 billion people whose disposable income is growing.”

Already, “The United States is India’s top trading partner, ahead of China today,” adds Nisha Biswal, President of the U.S. India Business Council (USIBC), which is part of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. Indeed, she says, a lot of top American companies have their biggest or second biggest bases in India.

Traditionally American executives have thought of India as a source of spices, textiles, apparel, jewelry and handicrafts.

While India does export billions of dollars of these products to the United States, India has moved much further up in the value chain. The cabin of Marine One, the presidential helicopter is fabricated for Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky unit in India, according to Aghi and he goes on to add “The Ford EcoSport is manufactured in Chennai, India for the U.S market.” NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California is collaborating with the Indian Space Research Organization on the most expensive imaging satellite ever to be launched, NISAR. This probe will be built and launched in India and will study hazards and global environmental change more accurately than ever before.

India exports shrimp, processed foods, and agricultural products to the United States. Aghi says that 3.2 million Apple iPhones built in India will be exported from the country. Biswal of USIBC asserts that India can supply medical devices, energy efficient green transportation, power semiconductors, switches, and rectifiers for American needs. India already provides almost 40 percent of the generic drugs sold in the United States, produced at factories inspected and approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

We call this phenomenon “India Inside,” where much of what is imported from India goes unnoticed by both American consumers and the media, but is nonetheless crucial to the fabric of the U.S economy. In particular we are confident that factories in India can scale up volume production to meet the domestic Indian, American, and global demand for devices, disposable and drugs to diagnose, treat and vaccinate against Covid-19.

Unlike export-driven China, India’s companies grew rapidly by serving pent-up domestic demand since the economy liberalized in 1991. In the process, Indian managers and entrepreneurs acquired the management skills and quality standards to expand globally, but they first turned to markets in the Middle East, ASEAN, Africa and Eastern Europe.

According to detailed current data from India’s Ministry of Commerce, Indian companies export billions of dollars each in categories as diverse as: furniture, medical and surgical instruments, electrical machinery, ships and boats, vehicles, boilers, parts made of plastic, steel and aluminum, organic and inorganic chemicals and more. We believe that many of these Indian suppliers are ready for first world markets. American companies can source these and other goods from their Indian corporate counterparts; unlike in China, these suppliers are not affiliated with the government.

China Plus One

How do you go about sourcing from India? We recommend an incremental approach in bringing on Indian suppliers; we call this “China Plus One.” Carefully select some low-risk or high-reward programs to try out in India, while maintaining your Chinese base. Work with multiple Indian partners as you get started. Very soon you can fine tune and amplify your successes.

What you learned in order to succeed in China may not serve you well in India, so it is important initially to approach India with humility and curiosity. Indians love America and American culture but react strongly to what they perceive as American arrogance. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to improve the ease of doing business, India still poses obstacles due to practices relating to both land and labor. Foreign companies wishing to build their own factories occasionally feel discouraged by these factors. But here are some ways that most American companies can overcome these challenges:

First, in order to leverage India as a source of supply, most American companies don’t need to invest in land and buildings, and they don’t need to hire employees in India. In our experience it is often best to start our as a buyer than as an investor. This gives more flexibility, reduces overhead, and limits initial risk.

Second, keep in mind that India is a diverse country with a federal structure. Many rules that affect industry vary from state to state. Some of India’s 28 states are more eager to help local and global entrepreneurs than others. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana are generally reputed to be friendlier toward local and global companies. But for specific industries and sectors, it is fine to do business in other states, as long as you do your due diligence. One of us (Bagla) has successfully taken clients to Uttar Pradesh for high-end floor coverings, such as rugs, and to Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the Himalayan foothills for personal care and consumer health products.

Third, when you do business in China, you know you need a language translator. While Indians do speak English, you still need a cultural interpreter and business guide helping you. While the U.S. Department of Commerce helps American companies to sell to India, they are not set up to guide companies who want to source from India. Someone inside your company who has current experience in doing business with today’s India is ideal (and not just any employee who just happens to be of Indian origin). Alternatively you can turn to external trusted advisors who specialize in U.S.-India business.

Finally, accept that India is a messy democracy and that the flow of goods can still be a challenge. Success in sourcing from India takes time and patience. Mukesh Aghi of USISPF is optimistic: “As new roads are built, harbors are expanded, and airports are enlarged, logistics will get more efficient.” In the meantime you may find that Indian companies are quite enterprising and can often encapsulate these complexities from their overseas customers.

Today, India permits 100% foreign direct investment in most sectors, so you don’t have to share your intellectual property or trade secrets with a local partner. Many American companies have had factories in India for decades and some have invested recently, such as Amway’s $100 million plant in Tamil Nadu.

As one of the top Asia-facing executives at a major American retailer put it to us, “Given amount of dependence on China, the only alternative country that can have the scale, the skills and the space to service American demand effectively is India.”

Vijay Govindarajan is the Coxe Distinguished Professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business and Faculty Partner at the Silicon Valley incubator Mach 49. He is the author of The Three Box Solution. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.


Gunjan Bagla is Managing Director of Amritt Inc, a California consultancy that advises American companies on doing business in India and the author of Doing Business in 21st Century India (Hachette, 2008). Follow him on LinkedIn.

A clear vision for the post-crisis future?

An HBR article by Mark W. Johnson and Josh Suskewicz follows – we called this approach ‘normative forecasting’ back in the good ol’ days

 

As the Covid-19 pandemic shakes the global economy and disrupts the way we live, work, and conduct business, leaders are scrambling to manage the immediate fallout. But, as history proves, it’s also necessary to prepare for what’s next.

Visionary leaders like Abraham Lincoln, FDR, Winston Churchill, and Nelson Mandela didn’t simply react to the most imminent threats confronting them; they also looked beyond the dark horizon. They were guided — and guided their people in turn — by their vision for a better future, after those challenges had been overcome.

Vision is especially urgent during a crisis as global and systematic as this one. Inflections that you might have had five years to anticipate in a normal environment might unfold in a matter of weeks or months. Trend lines, such as those towards telecommuting, tele-medicine, online shopping, and digital media consumption, are suddenly much steeper. Global supply chains are broken. Healthcare delivery is likely to change in ways that will make the last decade’s adoption of Obamacare look trivial. Many of your B2B customers may be shut down; millions of consumers are out of work. Some of the fundamental assumptions underlying your current business model may have been (or may soon be) upended.

In short, the business environment that you land in when the pandemic comes to an end — which could be one to two years from now — may be very different from what it was before the crisis began.

You need to begin preparing for it now. And to do that right, you need to have a longer-term vision of what you aspire to become in five or even 10 years — a north star that will focus and help shape your thinking about the short and the mid-term. It may be hard to see now, but the seeds of the next great growth industries are taking root now. Think back to Apple 20 years ago, which famously envisioned and started to plan for the iPod and iPhone as its computer business came under enormous strain during the dotcom crash.

Of course, nobody has a crystal ball (even Steve Jobs didn’t); if such a thing existed, we wouldn’t be in this fix. But while you can’t predict what’s coming with perfect certainty, you can develop much more clarity than you might imagine about what you could and should become, create a plan to live into it, and then set it into motion. Here’s our process, as detailed in our new book Lead from the Future, for doing exactly that.

Spend time envisioning your future. Ideally, you should dedicate about 10 to 20 percent of your time on a weekly basis over the next few months to exploring and envisioning where you want your organization to be when the crisis passes. This aspiration, of course, should be consistent with your longer-term vision.

Given the urgent demands of the present, some leaders may be tempted to delegate the responsibility for this kind of thinking to others, but it is critical that the CEO, CFO, CSO, and other key line leaders — the people who sign off on major resource allocation decisions — do this work themselves.

Interrogate what is likely to change about your customers, markets, and operating environment, and what isn’t. Focus on what your customers will require, how you’ll meet their new and evolving demands, the resonance of your products and services, and your overall capabilities.

Ask how resilient your core businesses will be in the light of these changes. Consider both threats and opportunities, and pinpoint elements of your portfolio that may no longer make sense and that will need to be sold off or shut down, as well as opportunities to accelerate new growth offerings.

Develop a strategy to walk back your envisioned future to today. Working backwards, lay out a path from your long-term aspiration to the mid-term (your post-crisis focal point), and from there to today. Reverse-engineer a series of benchmarks and milestones at regular intervals along the way. The reason to start in the future and “walk” backwards is that:

  1. It allows you to “clean-sheet” what you could become without being overly constrained by the way things are today
  2. It forces you to think concretely and in terms of dollars and cents
  3. This helps you decide which investments should be given priority.

To give you an example of how this works, suppose you are the president of a university. You know that online learning will be a major part of your future and anchored in new models that seamlessly blend online and in-person offerings. That future – already burgeoning before the crisis, and now being rushed into prime time – has accelerated. Step back from the mad dash to move this year’s courses online (an admirable feat, no doubt) and imagine what you’ll roll out at the start of the new academic year in the fall of 2021.

Then ask yourself what would have to be true, and by when, for it to happen in the best possible way. Systems will have to be in place, curriculum locked down, integration with conventional offerings worked out, people trained and hired. Perhaps you can meet all your benchmarks if you create the program internally, or maybe you need to partner with a developer or buy something off the shelf. The fall 2020 semester, starting a few months from now, will be a prime opportunity to pilot key elements of your envisioned program.

Be prepared to learn and pivot. Given the rapidly changing environment that you are working in, make sure to measure, monitor, and formally review your progress. Initially, you will be working off assumptions. As you test them in the real world, you will have more data and experience to prove or disprove them. Based on what you learn, adjust both your vision and your strategy.

As you work toward your mid-term and long-term goals, you must be attentive to both the strong and faint signals you receive. That requires a certain degree of humility, as you will likely have to surrender some of your certainties after they are tested against reality and fail. Speed and agility are key; you must learn quickly, constantly pivoting and adjusting. In doing so, you’ll also revisit your vision and continue to shape it.

Rally your team around your vision. Your people and stakeholders will have to make sacrifices, so you want them to believe in your view of the better future that they can achieve. Ideally, you already have a long-term vision of what you want to be which is inspiring, imbued with purpose, and relatively stable, compared to the roller coaster you are on today. While a business can succeed without having an explicit mission, there is a close association between missions and margins.

In 2019, our firm Innosight identified the 20 global companies that had achieved the highest-impact transformations of the decade. A newly strengthened sense of purpose, we found, was their common denominator:

  • Siemens, for example, had recently embraced an explicit mission to serve society
  • China’s Tencent had announced a quest to create “tech for social good”
  • Denmark’s Ørsted transformed itself from a struggling natural gas business to a cutting-edge wind energy company, increasing its net profits by some $3 billion per year – Ørsted’s long-term vision of itself as a green company not only inspires its people to perform, it helps its leaders keep its strategy on target

 

It is impossible to overestimate gravity of the present crisis. Many of you are wrestling with existential challenges; virtually all of you will have to adopt what amounts to a wartime footing. You may feel that you simply can’t afford to carve out the time that it takes to set out a vision and build a strategic path to it. But the leaders who manage the day-to-day and lead with vision will emerge from the crisis with companies that are stronger and more resilient than they were before.

Mark W. Johnson is co-founder and senior partner of the strategy consulting firm Innosight and author of Lead from the Future (HBR Press, 2020).


Josh Suskewicz is a partner at Innosight and the co-author of Lead from the Future (HBR Press 2020)

Productivity, Credit and Debt – video

A great 30 minute YouTube video – “How the Economic Machine Works” – is well worth watching
It was made some years ago by Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates
He explains the fundamentals behind how national economies work, how human nature makes credit and debt cycles inevitable, and how, ultimately, economic growth depends on productivity improvement
It’s great for non-economists like myself in helping understand, if only partially, how economies tick – I suspect there will be many economists who will also benefit from reading what he says

The post-pandemic world?

An article by Hubert Joly in the HBR  (Harvard Business Review) raises some interesting thoughts on human needs that leaders should consider once we’re through this pandemic and past these ‘watershed times’

 

During the Covid-19 crisis, I’ve spoken with many CEOs who have said that a key priority for them, naturally, has been the safety and well-being of their employees. And there are many examples of inspiring actions taken by CEOs and companies in support of their employees. But, as we’ve come to recognize that this crisis will last more than a few short weeks, companies are now defining their approach for the long haul.

I’ve seen two crucial ideas take hold with corporate leaders.

  1. Given the magnitude of the shock and the challenges that this crisis represents, companies must consider the full breadth of their employees’ needs as people. Safety is essential, of course, but it’s also important to address higher-level needs such as the want for truth, stability, authentic connections, self-esteem, growth, and meaning in the context of the crisis.

2. Many CEOs have begun thinking about this crisis in three phases. They may assign different names or specific lengths to these phases, but they all roughly map to three distinct time horizons: the shelter-in-place phase, the re-opening phase, and the post Covid-19 phase.

When these two ideas are combined, leaders can operate and lead more effectively by dynamically adjusting how they take care of their employees through the unique challenges of each phase. What follows is a discussion of how companies are and could be addressing workers’ needs in each phase.

Human Needs in the Shelter-in-Place Phase

During this first phase, companies have sought to ensure their workers’ physical safety. They’ve implemented work from home measures and sanitized work areas in cases where work is essential, and shifted operating models — adopting contactless delivery, for example.

Beyond safety, they’re working to ensure security as well. Many have worked to keep people on the payroll for as long as possible — even if that required furloughs — and increased pay for front-line workers. Some have established employee relief funds to address urgent needs. At some companies, senior executives and board of directors took pay cuts; many have provided back-up childcare solutions and fronted their workers time off to take care of loved ones.

Ever higher up the needs chain, they’re trying hard to create connection and support the mental health of their workers. They have communicated with their employees in ongoing, frequent, transparent, and honest ways, seeking out approaches with a human touch — using video rather than just written communication, establishing office hours, instituting a regular coffee time or happy hour, and providing direct access to leaders and colleagues. Importantly, some companies have put in place mental health support options for leaders and employees, including yoga and meditation sessions, to help employees navigate these unprecedented times while keeping some level of sanity.

How are leaders able to address their workers’ higher-level needs during this phase? Often during a crisis, we think the masculine superhero leader is the one to get us through troubled times: Be the strongest; be convicted; project infallibility; lead with a kind of singular force. A key observation I would make is that this may not be the best model of leadership here. Of course, we need leaders who have great analytical and problem-solving minds, leaders who are great at making decisions based on facts. But we also need leaders who can demonstrate vulnerability and empathy. It’s interesting to observe that many countries that seem to be going through this crisis the most effectively (Germany, Taiwan, New Zealand, Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Denmark) are all women-led and that their leaders seem to combine a science-based approach with a more human touch.

Last, but not least, even now in this shelter-in-place phase, I’m seeing many companies ensuring that the actions they take connect with the company’s purpose. As an example, at Best Buy, where I was CEO for seven years, the stated purpose is to enrich lives through technology and so it has focused on enabling its customers to work and learn from home. Many companies are also mobilizing their resources in support of the community in a way that is tied to their purpose, even if it’s not entirely obvious at first. Ralph Lauren, whose purpose as a company is to inspire the dream of a better life, may not seem like it has role to play here, but it has mobilized supplier relationships to produce masks and gowns for front-line healthcare workers.

Human Needs in the Re-Opening Phase

Cautiously, but hopefully, many companies have begun planning how to re-open their businesses — a process we now know will likely be long and drawn out. As they prepare for this next phase, they should continue to consider the broad spectrum of their employees’; needs, beyond just creating a physically safe workplace. For example, companies are considering the following measures that span the full range of human needs from basic to advanced:

  • Defining the conditions that will ensure a safe reopening of their operations, from in-home services to offices and stores.
  • Bringing back as many people as possible. Companies will of course need to decide how many employees they are able to call back in and how they will communicate with other furloughed employees at that time
  • Ensuring ongoing, honest communication with existing and furloughed employees, in a way that is truthful, humane, and caring. Conveying that the world is changing, encouraging the organization to “reset” vs. just “restart,” and highlighting that some things are not changing such as the company’s core focus and values.
  • Paying special attention to the ongoing communication with furloughed employees.
  • Helping the employees on the payroll deal with “survivor’s guilt” — the guilty feeling stemming from the fact that the employee is employed (and compensated) while many of their friends and colleagues are not. It will be important to highlight the role they can play to help bring as many of the furloughed employees back to work.
  • Celebrating inspiring news. Good news helps workers’ mental health, which is likely compromised right now. As an example, Best Buy has transformed its process to post company news in the elevators of its headquarters, previously called The Lift to a digital posting now called The Uplift.
  • Highlighting how the company’s activities contribute to the common good and are making a difference in people’s lives. Defining how the company is able to continue to support the local community.

A key requirement for companies in this phase will be to avoid broad policies that don’t take into consideration the very different circumstances different employees face. For example, companies must ask themselves, which employees are above the age of 60 and therefore more vulnerable at re-opening? How are they being served? Which employees do not have the necessary space and infrastructure in their home to be able to work productively, and would therefore be candidates to come back to the office sooner rather than later? How many employees suffer from mental health issues that may be aggravated by social isolation? To what extent do some employees have a deep need for social interactions which makes it more important for them to be with other workers sooner? A deeper understanding of workers’ needs, even individuals, beyond just safety will make for a better re-opening phase.

Human Needs in the Post-Covid-19 Phase

It will be some time until we reach this phase, but companies are beginning to consider it and prepare for it. For some companies, like those in the travel sector, this can be a challenging phase as declines in consumer demand has the potential to dramatically impact certain businesses, which could translate into significant revenue, cost, and headcount reductions.

The risk for many companies will be to lose hope in their ability to do more than move to being a smaller company.

This is where they can tap in the talent and sense of purpose of their employees to do better than that. As companies begin work on inventing a future that does not exist yet, they would be wise to mobilize the business understanding and sense of purpose of their employees as input to their planning process.

One hypothesis I have is that a strong focus on the purpose of the company, as opposed to its existing business model, can uncover and unleash significant new growth. This is what Best Buy — which during its turnaround faced an existential crisis of its own — experienced when it embraced its purpose of enriching lives through technology. The company unlocked latent demand it didn’t know was available to it by deploying an in-home advisor program and new tech support services. The company also entered the health market, deploying tech to help aging seniors live longer at home. At the time, the company could have looked at its situation and turned immediately to cost cutting and personnel reduction. Instead it found new growth and ways to retain and grow headcount. Similarly, in the current crisis, companies may find it’s a time to find those new areas of demand for fulfilling its purpose.

As a final thought for this phase, staying connected with furloughed employees will enable the companies to re-hire these employees as new job opportunities emerge, either based on growth or on turnover.

How companies and leaders approach the three phases of this crisis and treat all their stakeholders — starting with their employees and the whole range of their human needs — will be real “moments that matter” for their employees, contributing to the level of attachment (or not) the employees will have to the company in the future and to the ability of the company to thrive coming out of the crisis.

How to make ‘remote work’ more productive

It might seem like the glorious era of remote work is upon us, driven by a pandemic push. Zoom! Slack! Who needs the office? The promise of uncompromised productivity paired with freedom is alluring.

Let’s start in a not-so-obvious place – habits.
Work gets us to do small things (show up on time, respond to boring emails) and big things (launch new products that never existed before). It helps us create habits and track progress. It allows us to learn hard things quickly.
Do you ever hear your friends complaining that:
  • “I just can’t muster up the energy to get my presentation done for tomorrow’s meeting.”
  • “I’m supposed to send this weekly update and I keep forgetting. I think I’ll skip it.”
  • “I told my team I’d deliver this project, but I think I’ll ghost.”

 

These are just not things we typically say.

Why are we productive machines in some domains – like work – but fall flat on our faces in other domains like diet or meditation?

We tend to take this incredibly salient productivity gap for granted. We assume it’s all related to money. My work pays me to do work, so I do work. We assume it’s the money that makes us highly productive, reliable, and consistent worker bees.

But let’s take a look at what work actually is – basically, a giant group accountability system.

  • We sit next to our team members every day from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. – we work on different tasks–right next to each other.
  • We have daily or weekly meetings that ask team members to report everything they did yesterday and will do today.
  • We have team meetings with key stakeholders that require presentations to be prepped weeks in advance.
  • We have progress trackers that send out status reports on the project timelines.
  • We have shared deadlines that make us look bad if they’re missed.
  • We are part of quarterly and annual goals that are published to the company.
  • We have performance reviews to ensure we hit these goals. But if we don’t hit the goal? We debrief after it to change our strategy next time.

 

The craziest thing? At almost every corporation worldwide, work looks like this – regardless of culture or domain, most companies have agreed on this structure.

Most people call it accountability. Work helps solve our self-control problems with incredibly effective accountability systems.

What’s at the root of this?

At work, our behaviour is public. Work makes our behaviour visible to other people to help get us to get things done. Want to launch an incredibly complex product that requires building new innovations? Create a small team and commit to a public launch with aggressive timelines. This is what every tech startup in San Francisco does. Just look at Google’s Developer Day or Apple’s Keynote launches. Apple committed to launch iOS 13 on June 3, 2019, and, by golly, they did it. These are really just massive accountability systems that help employees to do something they said they would do.

Personal goals are in the private sphere. In the private sphere, we struggle.

In the public sphere, we understand there is an underlying norm about what should happen (“I should show up to this meeting prepared”). We self-regulate on the basis of anticipated consequences of going against that norm.

Accountability is really just expecting you might have to justify your actions to others in relation to a preexisting norm. And it works.

Accountability systems (making behaviour public) have been shown to work within voting, school attendance, handwashing, charity donation, and many other domains.

  • In Ely, Iowa, voters were told that if they didn’t vote, their names would be published in the newspaper. This drove voting rates up by 6.9%.
  • A YMCA told their members how much their peers were going to the gym. They then told these members that their attendance would be publicized next month. This increased attendance by 17% to 23%.

 

When we know our behaviour is in the public sphere, we anticipate what others will think, and we end up modifying our behaviour.

As office work moves to remote work while the coronavirus continues to spread, work habits that were previously public will become more private. Is this a good thing? How will our productivity change?

It’s a nice idea to say that it won’t. This is the popular opinion. But the reality is that the nature of work shifts as it moves from public to private.

The very thing that allows us to be productive is changing.

Meetings that once were in person will be on Zoom or online. People often keep their video on for the first five minutes and then they turn it off. This reduces accountability and may lead to more distraction.

Workdays that were once coordinated and public (we all get in around 9 a.m. and say hello) will now become uncoordinated and private. This freedom may be glorious, but it reduces accountability and may lead to fewer hours worked.

Deadlines like conferences and public PR launches have been cancelled. This relieves the public pressure and delays a key motivator for getting stuff done. This reduces accountability and may increase procrastination.

Here are five ways to stay on track.

KEEP VIDEO ON–FOR THE WHOLE MEETING

If you’re in person, you’d likely avoid checking email or surfing the web. Keep the same norms alive for remote meetings. This will also prevent the inevitable downfall of conference calls.

ARTICULATE AND COORDINATE START AND END TIMES OF THE WORKDAY

This creates a norm for when people should be on. While ‘working hours’ may feel implicit to your team, it should be re-articulated to ensure people are aligned in the new coronavirus quarantine era. As a bonus, this also helps people set boundaries on their work and not work late nights.

POST PUBLIC UPDATES ABOUT DAILY OR WEEKLY PROGRESS

Engineers have operationalised this for years. It’s called a daily standup–a 15-minute check-in to discuss blockers and the day’s priorities. It may be time for non-engineers to jump on the bandwagon. An easy way to start is with a Slack (or other messaging) channel devoted to updates.

ADD MORE DEADLINES AND DECISION POINTS

We’re all really good at procrastination–like, really good. But there is a solution. Deadlines help drive action. They help us focus and avoid getting distracted by nonessential tasks. One easy hack: Ensure meetings focus on making a decision. The meeting will become the deadline for teams to prepare their input.

GROUP YOUR MEETINGS INTO BLOCKS

Put meetings back to back instead of scattered throughout the day. Research says it will make you more productive because your blocks of time feel less scarce. This applies when in the office or not, but is especially important for work-from-home life since distractions may be higher.

As the nature of work changes in the coming months, we should understand how to optimise work conditions. Work is something that ties us to other people in such an intricate way that we have no choice (or think we have no choice) but to achieve our goals. Work is just an elaborate accountability system. It’s a proven system that has been shown to motivate us across domains and across cultures.

In times of coronavirus quarantine (but also for your personal goals in life), there is very simple advice one should consider: Don’t go it alone.

Or, if that’s too hard, just act like someone is always watching you.


Kristen Berman cofounded Irrational Labs, a behavioural economics design company, with Dan Ariely and was on the founding team for the behavioural economics group at Google.

Pandemic offers a productivity boost?

 An interesting article by Chris Dillow was recently published in the Investors’ Chronicle

Has the coronavirus solved the UK’s problem of stagnant labour productivity?

A productivity boost?

 

It’s a strange question, but one posed by Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts.

It expects that in 2021 we’ll be producing 2.8 per cent more than we did in 2019, as this year’s 12.8 per cent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) is followed by a 17.9 per cent rebound next year. But we’ll be doing that with half a million fewer workers. This means that, if the OBR is right, productivity will grow more in the two years from  2019 to 2021 than it did in the 12 previous ones.

Of course, all economic forecasts now must be taken with a ton of salt. But this poses the question: how could Covid-19 raise productivity?

One possibility is a compositional effect across sectors. If the downturn disproportionately hits low-productivity sectors while the recovery benefits higher productivity ones more, then aggregate productivity will rise as a mathematical fact. I’m not sure. Yes, some low-productivity industries have seen output collapse, such as pubs and restaurants. (We can, roughly gauge productivity from average wages). But also, some high-tech manufacturers have also been hit. And the high-productivity health sector is expanding now but will (we hope) contract next year.

A second possibility is that this recession will have a cleansing effect. It will drive inefficient businesses to the wall and so give more efficient ones space to expand. This certainly happens in some recessions – although it didn’t in the 2008-09 one. But it might not be the case this time. People are staying away from good shops and restaurants as much as from bad: they have no choice. Whether a company survives this recession will depend a lot on its balance sheet: cash-rich companies have a better chance than heavily indebted ones. But the correlation between balance sheets and productivity is weak: companies can be cash-rich because they are too inefficient to expand.

This leaves a third possibility. In the early phase of the upturn companies will respond to stronger demand not by taking on extra workers but by working existing staff harder. This will raise GDP per worker, probably by more than GDP per hour. It’s only when companies can be confident that demand will persist that they’ll start hiring.

Indeed, this third possibility is what the OBR expects. It foresees productivity falling back in 2022 as employment returns to – and in fact above – its 2019 peak.

Of course, the OBR’s numbers could well be wildly wrong – but this rough pattern looks right to me. The coronavirus, then, will give only a temporary stimulus to productivity.

This shouldn’t be surprising, as the fundamental determinants of productivity – the capital stock, skills, innovation, management quality, product market competition and so on – will not improve as a result of this crisis and some might even deteriorate.

Many people like to think that this crisis will change things permanently. One thing it is unlikely to change, however, is our lamentable productivity record.

Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust?

The flurry of figures, graphs and projections surrounding the pandemic is confusing. An article in The Guardian by two experts, Sylvia Richardson and Professor David Spiegelhalter, guides us through the maze

The coronavirus, Covid-19.

The past few weeks has seen an unstoppable epidemic … of statistics. The flood threatens to overwhelm us all, but what do all these numbers mean?

Here are eight statistics you may see, with some warnings about how much we might trust them.

1 The number of new cases each day

This can be a very poor reflection of the number of people who have actually been infected, as it depends crucially on the testing regime – up to 9 April, 1.3 million tests had been carried out in Germany, versus 317,000 in the UK.

2 The number of new deaths each day

The range of sources is bewildering. The daily announcements should be treated with caution as they only include deaths in hospital of those who have tested positive for coronavirus, and there is generally a delay in reporting deaths of a few days or even longer. For example, while on 27 March the government announced that 926 Covid-19 deaths had so far taken place in English hospitals, NHS England now reports that the true figure was 1,649. The gold standard is the number of death certificates collated by the Office for National Statistics: it report at least 1,568 mentions of Covid-19 for all deaths up to 27 March, but this will increase as registrations come in.

3 The total number of deaths

Graphs of accumulating deaths are shown at the daily government press conference, but they are a hopeless tool for spotting trends: we need daily counts to see whether we have reached a plateau (which will not be a “peak”). But the daily counts are volatile, and so need some smoothing to bring out the underlying trends: World in Data uses a three-day moving average.

4 Numbers recorded on a logarithmic scale

This will have a vertical axis labelled 1, 10, 100, 1,000. These are useful for comparing trends, but useless for getting an impression of the magnitude of the problem.

5 Predictions from models

Computer models come in two types.

The first tries to model the epidemic itself, by making simplified assumptions about the mechanism by which a virus spreads through a community. Key quantities, such as how many people an average case will infect, are highly uncertain at the start of an epidemic but are refined as more data is gathered. Such models have formed the basis for predicting the consequences of policy decisions in the UK.

6 “Excess deaths”

The number of extra deaths that will be recorded in this period, due either to Covid-19 or the lockdown, is hotly contested. Lives will be lost because of the illness, reduced medical care for everyone, domestic violence and the effects of unemployment and poverty; and lives will be saved through fewer accidents and, particularly, improved air quality. A (disputed) fraction of those dying would have died anyway in the coming year, a phenomenon known as mortality displacement or even “harvesting”. But the overall effect is hard to predict, and confident claims should be treated with scepticism.

7 The lethal risks of being infected

These vary dramatically with age and frailty, just as “normal” risks do. In fact the current estimates for the general public (rather than healthcare workers) seem remarkably similar to the risks we face anyway each year – but all packed into a few weeks.

8 The “accuracy” of an antibody test

Even apparently accurate antibody tests can lead to many false assurances of immunity. But a less accurate test may be fine if we are testing a representative sample to estimate the proportion of a population who have immunity.

Finally, it’s tempting to link a country’s statistics to the measures they have taken to control the virus: for example, has Sweden’s more relaxed policy been as effective as lockdown? But countries differ in so many ways: basic demographics, compliance and social networks, testing capacity and policy, health service characteristics and so on. Former prime minister Carl Bildt has joked that Swedes “have a genetic disposition to social distancing anyway”.

Sylvia Richardson, director, MRC Biostatistics Unit, president elect of the Royal Statistical Society

David Spiegelhalter, chairman, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication

 

Coaching Your Team Through Uncertain Times

An interesting article all locked-down managers should read by Francesca Gino and Dan Cable, and published by the Harvard Business Review

As they try to ride out the coronavirus pandemic, people are stressed and scared — nervous about others’ and their own health and the state of the world. For those lucky enough to be healthy and working from home in quarantine, their jobs can seem trivial and irritating. Separated physically from their colleagues, customers, and normal workplace, they find themselves alone with their computers, sporadically touching base remotely with those they used to see regularly. Many feel lost. Leaders of organisations can help their people get through these trying times by coaching them as they reevaluate their lives and rethink what they add to the world.

Here’s how.

Think about how you can serve the people you lead. Take time to reach out to those you lead in phone and video calls. Ask them how they’re doing and how you can help. Then do whatever you can to get them what they need, even if it has nothing to do with work. “Servant leaders” view their key role as serving employees as they explore and grow, providing tangible and emotional support along the way. Research shows that they create greater engagement and help employees bring more of themselves to work.

Help employees discover their own personal purpose. In this new work-from-home environment, free from the normal work scripts, many of us need to ask some basic questions: “What is my job now? How do I go about helping my organisation succeed? What do I want out of my career?” The answers might not be the same as they were a month ago. Discuss with employees whether any of the basic elements of their work have changed or will change. Get them to prioritise whom they are trying to serve and what they need from you in order to be effective. This type of conversation can provide the clarity needed to personalise our work’s purpose better than an organisation’s vision or mission statement, which is often so grand that employees have difficulty connecting it to their daily tasks.

In their research, Antonio Freitas of State University of New York and his colleagues demonstrate the value of questioning employees about their job tasks and then asking, “Why does it matter?” four times after each response. This exercise can connect a person’s daily activities to a higher-level goal.

Suppose a manager is in charge of completing performance evaluation forms for each employee. In response to the question, “Why does completing these forms matter?” she might answer, “I want to let my people know where they stand.” Next, she’s asked, “Why does it matter that people know where they stand?” The answer might be, “So that people can know how they can reach their career goals.” And a third time: “Why does it matter if people know how to reach their career goals?” The answer might be: “They may focus their energy at work differently.” Then a fourth question will follow: “Why does it matter whether people focus their energy at work in a different way?” A possible answer might be: “So that people feel like they are thriving while helping the company thrive.”

Analyzing decision-making at NASA during the 1960s, Wharton professor Andrew Carton found that similar steps helped employees see a stronger connection between their work and NASA’s ultimate aspirations: “I’m building electrical circuits” or “I’m mopping floors” becomes “I’m putting a man on the moon.” The more we think about why we’re performing a task, the more motivated and persistent we’ll be — especially when the task becomes hard. And as Carton found in his studies of NASA, this sense of purpose also boosted employees’ coordination and collective enthusiasm.

Encourage employees to reflect on opportunities to recraft their jobs. Leaders should go out of their way to talk with employees about their strengths and how they can use them in their new way of working. What abilities and talents would they like to use more in their work in the weeks, months, and years ahead? What would they like to learn?

This type of job crafting allows us to play to our strengths — letting our unique interests, perspectives, and background guide how we do our work and the value we add to the organisation. Your “best self” starts to determine the way you work, and work becomes more exciting.

Managers are often nervous about letting employees bring more of themselves to work and breaking away from the usual way of working more generally. They worry that important tasks will go undone or that employees will goof off. But now that working at home is a necessity, employees are already trying to cope with an unprecedented amount of autonomy. Use this as an opportunity to give employees the freedom to be themselves and explore their talents and interests. When leaders encourage employees to highlight and express their unique strengths on their jobs, their performance improves and burnout rates drop.

When employees can bring their best selves to work, they feel more autonomous, and their work feels more meaningful. Even when they’re working in their living room, their engagement has a chance to soar. Work feels like it matters more when we get to decide how it’s done.

The current crisis may likewise serve as a trigger for individuals to reflect on who benefits from their work and how they are making a difference. With the help of their leaders, they can make adjustments to bring more meaning to their work during this time of crisis and beyond.

NB HBR adds the following at the end of the above – ‘If (the above) free content helps you to contend with these challenges, please consider subscribing to HBR. A subscription purchase is the best way to support the creation of these resources.’

It’s output results, not input hours, that matter

A piece by Jared Lindzon of Fast Company follows – at long last, some in the outside world are now saying what this website has been banging on about for years – the pandemic has reinforced how foolish it is to compare input times with output volumes, especially when it comes to knowledge-based work.

In a 1996 episode of NBC’s Seinfeld, George discovers that he’s accidentally fooled his bosses, Steinbrenner and Wilhelm, after locking his keys inside his car outside his office.

Since the period of industrial revolution, we’ve used one primary scale to measure productivity: hours. As Seinfeld demonstrates, however, it’s not always an effective way to gauge actual performance or output.

Measuring productivity in hours alone can discourage workers from being more efficient with their time. In some instances it rewards those who are perceived to be working more hours, even when they’re not accomplishing much, as demonstrated by George.

Now that many workplaces have closed their doors and allowed employees to work from home, there is a unique opportunity to experiment with a different—and far more effective—scale.

HOW WORK BECAME TETHERED TO TIME AND SPACE 

For nearly a century productivity has been closely tied to time and space, measured in terms of how many hours a worker spends at a designated workstation. It was a convenient measurement tool for a period defined by standardisation, where the vast majority of jobs valued physical presence over cognitive output.

“It probably started with the industrial revolution, but came to its fruition in the 1920s assembly line when Henry Ford set up a factory system where work is commoditised and the content is mainly physical,” explains Robert Pozen, a senior lecturer at MIT Sloan School of Management and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

While the system was designed to fit the working culture of the era in which it was created, however, Pozen believes it doesn’t translate well into the modern reality.

“Hours are a relic of the past that might be appropriate for assembly line work, but in a knowledge economy doesn’t make any sense,” he says. “The problem is that for most organisations, they’re not willing to just get off hours, because they don’t have a good replacement.”

IN SEARCH OF A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

In his 2012 book Extreme Productivity: Boost Your Results, Reduce Your Hours, Pozen offers an alternative productivity measurement system that he calls “performance objectives with success metrics.”

“People should spend real time figuring out what their goals, priorities, and objectives are, and agree on success metrics on how you can tell, after a week or a month, whether you have achieved those,” he says.

Pozen’s system empowers workers to work on their own schedules, so long as they’re able to complete the agreed upon tasks within the agreed upon timeframe. Though it may require extra effort on behalf of employers and managers, however, Pozen believes that the practice of defining goals helps organisations better focus their efforts and better utilise their human resources. “It’s more than just replacing hours; it helps develop consensus on what the organisation is trying to achieve, and how they measure success,” he says.

ORGANISATIONS GOING REMOTE HAVE A CHOICE

Redefining how you measure productivity can be a daunting task, but maintaining the status quo is often more difficult in the face of today’s remote working reality.

“A lot of entrepreneurs are learning that you can’t have that stringent control that you used to have when you were all in one space, but that it really doesn’t matter if someone works nine to five or four to midnight, as long as they get the job done,” explains small business consultant Marla Tabaka.

Tabaka adds that there are remote jobs that require a strict adherence to hours, such as customer service. In other roles, however, employers have been given a choice; use somewhat invasive tools to remotely track employee screens and maintain strict working hours, or offer employees greater flexibility and control over their own schedules.

While the former might provide employers with greater oversight, Tabaka argues that the latter breeds a stronger work culture and in turn more productive employees. “I’m seeing more CEOs begin to learn that letting go of that control gives them more control,” she says.

A CULTURE OF TRUST 

Moving from a workplace that emphasises hours to one that emphasises output is no small feat, and requires employers and managers to have a number of systems already in place. Chief among them, according to Tabaka, is a culture of trust.

“Having a culture of trust breeds accountability,” she says. “When it’s just about numbers people begin to feel like just another number; when its tied to that broader company vision and goals, people feel like they’re part of something bigger, and they’ll work harder for you, because it becomes a part of their life.”

Tabaka adds that an engaged employee “can do more in six hours than an employee who is stressed can do in 12.”

Another important prerequisite is for managers to unlearn much of how they’ve traditionally approached their oversight role and evaluated employee productivity.

“There has to be some level of manager training that helps managers refocus on productivity and goals and results and processes, and really get down into the details of, what does productivity ultimately look like? How do you know, outside of hours worked, when someone is productive on your team? What are the main goals on your team? What does each individual have to do to reach those goals?” says Brie Reynolds, the senior career specialist for FlexJobs.

THE FUTURE OF WORK?

Reynolds believes the system of monitoring and compensating staff based primarily upon hours worked has long been ripe for disruption, and while the coronavirus pandemic provides a unique opportunity to consider alternatives, she doesn’t expect companies to stop counting hours anytime soon. “I think there will always be some sort of time element to it, but I don’t think it will continue to be this eight hours a day standard,” she says.

One of the biggest roadblocks to adopting a new scale for measuring productivity, even during this seemingly ideal opportunity, may be tied to basic human psychology.

“I think we will make progress toward people being judged more on their productivity than hours present the more people are working remotely, but I don’t think it will replace it, because it’s just counter-human,” says Johnny C. Taylor Jr., CEO of the Society for Human Resource Management.

Taylor explains that if an employer asks a staff member to complete a task, they likely prefer that they do so in 10 minutes, rather than an hour. On the other hand, if one of his colleagues worked for 10 minutes and took the rest of the hour off while he continued to work, Taylor says he wouldn’t be comfortable with that.

“Even if they get all their work done, fundamentally that does not feel fair,” he says. “As much as we know this is theoretically the right thing to do—I absolutely agree it should be productivity-based—there’s that human part of us that says it doesn’t fundamentally feel fair.”

Taylor adds that the already delicate issues of gender, race, identity, and privilege in the workplace would only further complicate our sense of fundamental fairness.

“Then you get into this conversation of, ‘well he’s a faster typer, because he lived in this neighbourhood and they had better typewriters than I did growing up,’” he says.

In a remote setting, however, making those side-by-side comparisons becomes more difficult. While Taylor encourages organisations to continue seeking better solutions, however, he doesn’t see the traditional system of measuring productivity in hours going away anytime soon.

“Do I think it will change significantly? No, because of this fundamental concept of human fairness,” he says. “But should it? Yes, and I’m hoping the move to more remote work—which I think will persist beyond the COVID-19 crisis—will move us further in that direction.”

Office productivity

OFFICES ARE ABOUT TO CAUSE PRODUCTIVITY TO EXPLODE

So claims Mike Phillips in one of Bisnow.com’s featured series on the ‘Future of Work’ – it’s more realisation that the pandemic has given a massive kick-start to many business changes needed given the enabling technology has been around but not used well for many years now 

The way we work has changed beyond comprehension in the past 200 years. But the way we use offices is pretty much still the same.

There have been changes in design: Closed individual offices were the norm, cubicles came and have now largely gone, and today the open office and agile working reign supreme. But the idea of a place where you travel to work, nine hours a day, five days a week, hasn’t changed since the idea was invented during the Industrial Revolution. Until now.

“Processes get locked in place: The only reason schools have such a long summer holiday is because children used to have to go and help bring in the harvest,” Stanford University Professor of Economics Nick Bloom said. “Ideas can be very hard to shift. But I think we could be about to see an explosion in growth.”

The way we use offices is at the centre of that.

Offices Are About To Cause Productivity To Explode

 

The way companies use offices was already changing, and that change has only been accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic and the switch to home-working it has forced upon the world. So office space is going to have to change to mirror the way companies are now working.

Experts believe in future, companies will want less space, but better space. They will want space that allows different teams within their company to achieve different objectives, with the physical environment helping company goals. Office space will need to seamlessly bring together those working in the building and those working from home.

Companies will want to experiment with different physical environments, trying and testing in the same way they would a new website. Office owners, developers and operators will need to provide the physical infrastructure and technology that allows all this to occur. Those that do will help companies tap into this potential growth in productivity, and are likely to be richly rewarded.

For Bloom, who specialises in productivity and the factors that influence it, the change in the way we work and how we use offices is akin to the change that occurred in factories when they switched from steam power to electricity. It took decades for the increases in productivity to be seen, not because factory owners didn’t want to switch from steam to electricity, but because it took a long time to work out how factories and production process should be organised to take advantage of the new technology. Companies had to change shape, and so did the buildings they occupied.

“[Nobel Prize-winning economist] Robert Solow famously said in the 1980s you can see computers everywhere except in the productivity figures,” Bloom said. “We haven’t seen the miracle that IT was supposed to produce, but new ways of working, accelerated by COVID-19, could spur that. We now have the processes and technology up and running to be able to work flexibly and increase productivity.”

Bloom sees the coronavirus accelerating the trend for employees to work remotely, either from home or from smaller satellite offices away from city-centre HQs, as companies that may have doubted the wisdom of this practice had their hand forced. Companies have had to reorganize at least temporarily in a way that embraces flexibility, and Bloom believes those that stick with it will see increased productivity long term. The combination of office and home work is expected to reduce the inefficient elements of office life: stressful commutes, rigid working patterns and unnecessary meetings.

Offices Are About To Cause Productivity To Explode
Stanford’s Nick Bloom

 

An increase in working from home would decrease the need for fixed desk space in an office, because the kind of quiet, internally focused work someone might once have done in the office can now be done at home. The result could be more space given over to collaborative areas where colleagues can interact.

Because what is an office actually for? Its role in business and society has changed, and while some businesses have grasped that and reaped the productivity benefit, others haven’t. Once you had to go to an office to do your job, and employers wanted you there to keep an eye on you and make sure you were doing it.

Now, it is a social space, where ideas are swapped and new ideas created, a place where loneliness is staved off.

“It’s a place for cumulative cultural knowledge to be exchanged,” AXA IM — Real Assets Head of UK Development Harry Badham said. “If I know something and you don’t know I know it, that piece of knowledge is essentially useless. An office is the best way to share knowledge around a company and to create a culture.”

How offices influence collaboration, creativity and culture in practice is subtle and nuanced, and companies have often been treating it with too broad a brush.

“The way we work has never changed more quickly, but the place we work hasn’t,” Humanyze President and co-founder Ben Waber said. “For a long time companies have been paying lip service to these ideas, but not really embraced them. But we have the opportunity to experiment and adapt.”

Offices Are About To Cause Productivity To Explode

 

Humanyze undertook research alongside academics from Harvard University which showed that, far from increasing collaboration among staff, companies that transitioned from fixed offices or cubicles to an open-office plan saw interaction between staff decrease, as people hid behind headphones and were afraid to have conversations in a setting where everyone could hear them.

Waber said companies should treat office space like they would a new website, testing out various layouts to see which achieves their desired outcomes. But first it is important to know what those outcomes are.

It is a bit more complex in practice, but if you have a team that needs to work in a tight-knit way on a specific project with a deadline, give them their own fixed office or space within a wider office, or even temporary space in a flexible office. Even putting the coffee machine in the centre of the team rather than in a peripheral kitchen can make teams turn inward instead of outward.

By contrast, if you need different teams to start interacting with each other, put them together in a shared seating area.

Hot desking is all well and good, but letting people randomly pick seats doesn’t allow you to control outcomes.

“The design you choose should depend on the networks you want to create,” Waber said.

As artificial intelligence is able to undertake more of the repetitive processing work that was once a major part of office life, the average office worker will spend more time on different types of task, requiring different types of creative thinking. And this will require offices to be organised differently.

Offices Are About To Cause Productivity To Explode

 

“Different tasks and ways of working will require different types of space,” Convene’s Zampini said. “You need an office where you have head-down space like a library, collaborative space, social space, space for board meetings or town hall meetings, and to access those different types of space at the touch of a button.”

For developers and operators, it is a cliche that they need to build flexibility into their buildings. But that doesn’t make it any less true.

“Companies need to be able to adapt their space as their businesses adapt,” said Nick Searle, a partner at Argent, which is developing HQ buildings in London for Google and Facebook. “For all the businesses we work with, whether they are banks, professional firms or tech firms, they all need to be able to morph their space internally. There is only so far we can go, as most of our tenants will fit out space themselves, but we need to give them that ability to change their environment.”

On an operational level, the technology offered by a building can be vital in enabling companies to adopt those flexible working practices that can increase productivity.

“If you think of a meeting room, it might be smaller because not all of the people in the meeting are going to be physically present, but it needs to have great and easy-to-use technology to allow that kind of hybrid working that distributed teams need,” Zampini said.

AXA’s Badham pointed out that if companies are going to have a greater proportion of their teams working remotely more of the time, then building systems need to allow people to access an office using their phone, rather than having to go through a cumbersome signing-in process if they are coming in once or twice a week. And that means building owners employing people and systems to keep up to date the registers of who can and can’t access a building.

Offices Are About To Cause Productivity To Explode
Meeting rooms now need to be able to bring together disparate teams using technology.

Many of these trends will come together to have one overall result: The average company will have less office real estate, but it will be better.

“It will be about the quality, not about how much of it you have,” Zampini said.

“It is a journey we have been on for several years, but I think the average company will just consume less real estate,” Deutsche Bank Managing Director for Corporate Services Kathryn Harrison-Thomas said. “[People working from home amid the pandemic] is a chance for us to reset our strategy. I don’t think many companies will just go back to what they were doing before.”

She pointed out that the vast majority of the world’s financial services professionals are working from home, and financial markets are still functioning, even if they are looking decidedly downbeat.

Badham said about 80% of the occupiers AXA signed for its 1.3M SF 22 Bishopsgate skyscraper in London took less space than they previously occupied.

“If you have less space you want better space, and that means better amenities, and being smarter in how it is operated,” he said.

In his book 50 Things That Made The Modern Economy, economist Tim Harford argued it took almost 50 years for the productivity benefits from electrification to be truly felt. Hopefully it won’t take as long for new trends in work to have an impact, but for companies to harness the potential benefits that new ways of working can bring, it will take a change of mindset in how they organise their businesses, and how they utilise their office space.

A shorter work week?


Microsoft recently granted its workers in Japan five Friday’s off in a row, resulting in a 40% productivity jump. Similar recent experiments have resulted in healthier, happier more efficient workers. 

Around the world the idea of reducing working hours is a topic of debate and discussion once more.

The first major victory that achieved an 8-hour working day, with no loss of pay, was won in Melbourne by building workers in 1856. Prior to that 10 and 12-hour working days were normal.

But the working week was still 6 days long, 48 hours a week. From that time on there were many campaigns across industries to further reduce the amount of time people were forced to spend at work.

It wasn’t until 1928 that an 8-hour day, 6-day week was established in national law, and it was another 20 years before a 5-day week was achieved.

All of these achievements were won through organising and campaigning. The strongest action was taken ‘on the job’.

But since then the 8-hour day has been eroded for many. Lots of workers now do very long and unhealthy hours. Others struggle to get enough hours to pay the bills, or even to get a job at all.

The struggle for shorter hours has been stalled since the 1970s. The decline of union membership because of poor leadership of the workers movement in recent decades is the reason.

Bosses are always scheming to make us work harder, for longer, for less. They say we need a rise in productivity to do less work. But the truth is worker productivity has increased an enormous amount over the last decades.

Technology and efficiency have increased dramatically since there was any real reduction in standard working hours.

In fact, human labour has never been so productive in all of history. The problem is that the overwhelming bulk of the ‘productivity gains’ have turned into fat CEO bonuses and turbo-charged corporate profits.

In 1930 the famous economist John Keynes predicted that a 15-hour work week would be standard by now.

Metal workers in Melbourne regularly occupied the intersection outside Flinders Street Station on Friday nights in the 1970s. They were protesting for a 35-hour working week. They believed that microchips, computers and robotics would lay the basis.

Scary stories from bosses allege less time working would mean higher unemployment or even economic catastrophe.

Whenever workers ask for anything you can expect to hear these kinds of doom and gloom predictions from the honest, responsible corporate captains of Australia.

Really the question is how we divide the up the wealth and the benefits that are produced by the collective efforts of all working people in society?

Reducing working hours without reducing pay means that workers would keep more of the wealth we produce. That means cutting into corporate profits. No wonder the bosses are opposed!

Instead of more luxury cars, mansions and yachts for the 1%, we want society’s wealth used to provide more time for leisure, health and community.

A shorter working week without loss of pay would also mean that more people could be employed to take up any slack left over.

There are millions of workers in Australia living from one pay day to the next, who want to work more to earn more. There are more people again who are unemployed.

Both these problems could be addressed right away by shortening the working week and sharing out the available work.

That’s why Socialist Action calls for a 35-hour week with no loss of pay, as an immediate step toward reducing working time further.

Building workers in 1856 won a 25% pay rise combined with a 20% cut in their working hours all at once. They didn’t have the benefits of the communication technology we have today, or as much time outside work to organise.

It’s possible to revive those traditions and have big wins like that today. What’s required is to rebuild determined working class organisations with socialist ideas and bold leadership. We have to reject the arguments of the bosses and the logic of the profit driven system.

Capitalists say they can’t afford shorter working hours. We respond that working class people can’t afford their profit-driven system. We need a society that puts the needs of the majority above the profits of the 1%. We need a democratic socialist society.

By Kirk Leonard

Steve Jobs’ advice on becoming more productive Is quite brilliant

Inc.com published an article by Marcel Schwantes, founder and Chief Human Officer, Leadership From the Core
Steve Jobs is most famous for founding Apple and turning it into one of the biggest and most valuable brands ever.
One may think that Jobs juggled lots of massive projects at once to reach the pinnacle of success. But he actually credited much of his success to one word: focus. At the 1997 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, Jobs shared this brilliant piece of advice:

“People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve got to focus on. But that’s not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I’m actually as proud of the things we haven’t done as the things I have done.”

Business should not be confused for busyness. As our productivity increases, and we spread ourselves thin in an attempt to accomplish all our goals, Steve Jobs had a different approach. He said, “Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things. You have to pick carefully.”
Without focus, your ability to think, problem-solve, and make decisions will suffer. You just can’t maximize your efficiency if your mind is wandering off into multitasking land. Rather, the focus should be on single-tasking — placing your full attention on one thing, one business problem, one big task, one important conversation.

Say no to these things.

Jobs’ advice of saying no mirrors my own counsel to coaching clients who struggle with productivity. To simplify, I often tell them to say no to these things in particular:

Doing all the work themselves

Getting as much done as possible in a day means delegating. This may be challenging for controlling types to take on, but it’s absolutely essential.

To Jobs, the first step is to surround yourself with bright people. The next is to step back and let them work: “It doesn’t make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do,” he said. “We hire smart people, so they can tell us what to do.”

Interruptions and distractions

Technology is one of the greatest gifts of productivity and one of the biggest obstacles to maintaining good focus. The constant distractions from notifications can easily take you off track.

One study found that if all interruptions were eliminated, workers would recapture three to five hours a day every day, which equals 40-60 percent of the standard workday.

Instead of letting tech manage you, manage your tech by avoiding jumping into email when you start your day; you may get sucked into a whirlpool of others’ needs, so do this last. Then, when doing work that requires flow and sharp focus, go airplane mode or turn off notifications, and place your smartphone in another room nearby.

Setting unrealistic goals

As you think of the countless tasks you’re likely to face this week, avoid ​setting goals you won’t likely be able to accomplish or you just can’t take on. Be realistic about what and how much you put on your plate.

For example, while planning out your day, come up with one or two primary goals you want to accomplish before close of business. These should be goals that will propel you forward, not sidetrack you from your MO.

To ensure success, break these down into smaller tasks in support of those goals, so it doesn’t feel like you’re staring up at Everest when you begin your day.

As Jobs reminds us, “Focusing is about saying no.” It isn’t easy, but the payoff can be quite rewarding. As Jobs said, “I’m actually as proud of the things we haven’t done as the things I have done.”

M/S says “Remote working is here for good”

An Inc.com report by Jason Aten follows – with only a few changes:

If nothing else, in these past few weeks, we’ve learned that as a whole, people are quite resourceful when it comes to figuring out how to adapt and stay productive, even in extraordinary circumstances. You have to admit that it’s impressive how well millions have adjusted to working from home. OK, maybe “adjusted” is a little generous, but we’ve made it work for the most part.

One of the biggest questions is what happens when things get back to “normal?” Or, maybe more important, what will normal even mean? A report Microsoft just released suggests remote work is here to stay, and the company has the data to back it up.

Some of that data is pretty incredible. For example, Microsoft says it saw an increase of 12 million users in the first week of stay-at-home orders. That means there are now over 44 million people using Microsoft Teams to stay connected to their, well, teams.

At the end of March, Microsoft says the number of minutes of meetings held with Teams increased threefold over March 15, for a total of 2.7 billion minutes. In one day. That’s a lot of meetings.

It’s also a lot of people getting a lot of work done, all without the structure of an office. There’s no doubt that while the shift to working remotely has been a challenge, tools like Slack, Zoom, and Microsoft Teams have made it relatively easy to stay connected and productive. And those same tools are likely to play a big role in how companies figure out how to keep their employees productive.

Microsoft points out that in areas of the world that have started to return to work, many people continue to work remotely. There are probably a variety of reasons, including that people may just be hesitant to return to an office when it’s hard to know if it’s truly safe to do so.

But there’s also a case to be made that if we’ve proven many types of work can be done remotely, why go back? Working remotely just works. It is, in many cases, better for both the employees and the company. It allows people the freedom to choose the type of schedule and work environment that helps them thrive.

There are plenty of small and mid-size businesses that were already mostly, if not entirely remote. There’s no question technology has provided us with tools that make many of the reasons for an office mostly obsolete. For example, I manage a fully remote team, and we are able to collaborate and communicate as well as if we were working in an office–maybe even better.

I tend to think Microsoft is right, that the shift is more than just a trend, but rather a rethinking of what it means to be productive. We’ve reconsidered how to balance productivity and flexibility. At some point, life will return to some form of normal. Like Microsoft, I won’t be surprised if that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll all return to the office.

Will the Pandemic make us more productive?

The following thoughts, published by Bloomberg Opinion, are from Karl W. Smith, a former assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina and vice president for federal policy at the Tax Foundation.

The Great Suppression will continue to cause enormous economic and personal hardship for scores of millions of Americans. It is possible, however, for the U.S. to emerge from this pandemic with a stronger and more productive economy.

To be clear, the base case is not rosy. The next few months will be difficult as the U.S. and the rest of the world struggle to contain and cope with the loss of life associated with Covid-19. The shutdown of vast swathes of the world economy is both necessary (to slow the virus) and tragic (for those whose livelihoods it will ruin). It is important never to lose sight of the enormity of the suffering caused by this pandemic.

At the same time, crises can sometimes force nations and leaders to take steps that they might otherwise be afraid of. In the U.S., two critical transformations have taken place that could yield long-term benefits.

The U.S. and other advanced economies have been suffering from low productivity growth since 2001. In part, that’s because the U.S.’s fastest growing sectors — health care and education — were relatively late to make use of the efficiencies enabled by the internet.

The internet has had a huge impact on the few sectors of the economy that it affected. But it did relatively little to improve productivity in health care and education.

The pandemic has the potential to change that.

Telemedicine is being practised at an unprecedented scale so that patients can see doctors without risking exposure to Covid-19. That not only eases the delivery of services, but it also helps to expand the market available to health-care providers.

In education, there is a similar trend towards embracing distance learning. There have been experiments in the past, but they suffered from lack of scale and adverse selection. Because most students and professors were reluctant to abandon traditional in-class instruction, there were few resources for online learning and only a handful of often disadvantaged students took advantage of it.

Again, the pandemic has changed the calculus. As the number of participants explodes, both the technological barriers and the stigma associated with online education are falling. At the same time, best practices can spread widely, lowering costs and increasing effectiveness.

These kinds of returns to scale can reverberate across the economy. The Great Suppression has forced employers and employees to use technology to work from home. If successful, those efforts can carry forward into the economy as it is rebuilt after the pandemic has passed.

Perhaps the greatest obstacle to long-term growth is land-use restrictions, which drive up the cost of housing in areas with the fastest jobs and wage growth. The result is that millions of Americans must either take lower-paying jobs outside the major cities or lose time and money with long commutes.

Telework has the potential to radically alter this dynamic. If an increasing percentage of the high-productivity workforce can operate remotely, then the pressure to live in or near major cities will decrease.

None of these developments, it almost goes without saying, is certain. First, the U.S. will have to contain the pandemic. Then it will have to retain the policies, both public and private, that allowed Americans to continue working and studying from afar.

(N.B. The above does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.)

How to boost office productivity

The following article is by Constantine Von Hoffman, published by Computerworld and sponsored by Microsoft – it offers important advice for all office managers nowadays

Upgrading to new applications and tools can do so much for a business. Up-to-date software can improve efficiencies and boost productivity, leading to both top-line and bottom-line gains. But getting that payoff means getting people on board with the change and comfortable with the new systems.

Unfortunately, a lot of companies struggle with this critical step.

Consider a PwC study in which 90% of executives believe their company pays attention to people’s needs when introducing new technology, but only 53% of staff members agree. Additionally, only 50% of staff members say they’re satisfied with the resources available at their company to learn how to use new technology.

Moving to a new platform or productivity suite can be highly disruptive to individuals and administrators. Often the new software is installed overnight or over the weekend, and when employees come into work the next day, they have a new system that they’re expected to start using right away.

Too often, there’s no process for helping users to understand the new functions they need for their job and how the new platform can help them. When people aren’t aware of the range of collaboration tools they have access to, they default to the programs and processes they’re already comfortable with.

Behavioural change and a baseline of training

The reality is that successful adoption of any new technology—including Microsoft 365, which brings new functionality and new ways of working—requires behavioural change and a baseline of training to ensure it’s used most effectively.

If traditional training methods – or no training at all – have hampered technology adoption at your organisation, consider a new approach. For Microsoft 365, Robert Crane, principal at technology consultancy CIAOPS, recommends a “learning path” that features staged, short-burst training on each application in the suite, including showing users new and better ways to accomplish their day-to-day tasks.

Employees are likely familiar with Microsoft Office and Windows, but Microsoft 365 includes a much broader set of functionality and tools that can overwhelm users—or be ignored entirely if individuals don’t discover them on their own or know how to use them.

A typical learning path might include the following:

  • Begin with basic lessons around core functionality, such as adding an attachment or uploading a file to a shared workspace. This training, delivered in short tutorials or 2-minute videos, allows users to learn about new features or functions while still getting their work done.
  • Consider grouping these lessons by app – for example, five lessons on OneDrive, followed by five lessons on Teams, etc.
  • Next, you can provide lessons on how the apps integrate with one another. “Show them the whole environment and how all the tools work together,” says Crane. “Because they don’t know what they don’t know.”
  • More advanced training involves helping users to rethink traditional processes. For example, “you don’t want to just transfer an F drive into Microsoft collaboration solutions,” says Crane. “You need to think about what’s the best tool for the job—some of those files may go to OneDrive, others will go to SharePoint, some will go to Teams. You want to rethink and reorganise to get the most from the tools.”

 

While some people will be very quick to understand the value of new technology, others won’t immediately grasp it. They need to see how specific features or tools will save time and make them more productive. This type of training pays for itself by getting people working sooner and better on the new system.

Proper training “makes a big difference in getting over the initial hump,” Crane says. “I generally don’t see businesses giving their employees the time and the training to get comfortable in their new space. When they do, they start to see the benefits—and that’s when the magic happens.

The economic impact of CV-19?

An article in the Harvard Business Review by Philipp Carlsson-SzlezakMartin Reeves and Paul Swartz follows – the bulk that I think I understood makes interesting reading – maybe the rest does too!

As the coronavirus continues its march around the world, governments have turned to proven public health measures, such as social distancing, to physically disrupt the contagion. Yet, doing so has severed the flow of goods and people, stalled economies, and is in the process of delivering a global recession. Economic contagion is now spreading as fast as the disease itself.

This didn’t look plausible even a few weeks ago. As the virus began to spread, politicians, policy makers, and markets, informed by the pattern of historical outbreaks, looked on while the early (and thus more effective and less costly) window for social distancing closed. Now, much further along the disease trajectory, the economic costs are much higher, and predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, as multiple dimensions of the crisis are unprecedented and unknowable.

In this uncharted territory, naming a global recession adds little clarity beyond setting the expectation of negative growth. Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis.

Darker outlook, less visibility

The window for social distancing — the only known approach to effectively address the disease — is short. In Hubei province it was missed, but the rest of China made sure not to miss it. In Italy the window was missed, and then the rest of Europe missed it too. In the U.S., still constrained by insufficient testing, the early window was also missed. As the disease proliferates, social-distancing measures will have to be enacted more broadly and for longer to achieve the same effect, choking economic activity in the process.

Another wave of infections remains a real possibility, meaning that even countries that acted relatively quickly are still at risk every time they nudge their economies back to work. Indeed, we have seen some resurgence of the virus in Singapore and Hong Kong. In that sense, only history will tell if their early and aggressive responses paid off.

At present, the economic outlook for late actors looks bleak, having caught politicians, policy makers, and financial markets off guard. What happened in the last four weeks was not part of the risk calculation. Forecasts won’t help much here. For example, consensus estimates for initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were around 1.6 million this week, but the figure came in at 3.28 million — an historically unprecedented figure, about five times greater than the largest weekly increase in the global financial crisis. Notoriously unreliable at the best of times, forecasts look especially dubious now as there are simply too many unknowable aspects:

  • The virus’ properties are not fully understood and could change.
  • The role of asymptomatic patients is still imperfectly understood.
  • The true rates of infection and immunity are therefore uncertain, especially where testing is limited.
  • Policy responses will be uneven, often delayed, and there will be missteps.
  • The reactions of firms and households are uncertain.

Perhaps the only certainty is that any attempt at a definitive forecast will fail. However, we think examining various scenarios still adds value in this environment of limited visibility.

Examining the shape of the shock

The concept of a recession is binary and blunt. All it says is that expectations have flipped from positive to negative growth, at least for two consecutive quarters.

We think the bigger scenario question revolves around the shape of the shock — what we call “shock geometry” — and its structural legacy. What drives the economic impact path of a shock, and where does Covid-19 fit in?

To illustrate, consider how the same shock —the 2008 global financial crisis — led to recessions with vastly different progressions and recoveries in three sample countries:

      • V-shape. In 2008, Canada avoided a banking crisis: Credit continued to flow, and capital formation was not as significantly disrupted. Avoiding a deeper collapse helped keep labor in place and prevented skill atrophy. GDP dropped but substantially climbed back to its pre-growth path. This is typical of a classic “V-shape” shock, where output is displaced but growth eventually rebounds to its old path.
      • U-shape. The Unites States had a markedly different path. Growth dropped precipitously and never rebounded to its pre-crisis path. Note that the growth rate recovered (the slopes are the same), but the gap between the old and new path remains large, representing a one-off damage to the economy’s supply side, and indefinitely lost output. This was driven by a deep banking crisis that disrupted credit intermediation. As the recession dragged on, it did more damage to the labor supply and productivity. The U.S. in 2008 is a classic “U-shape” — a much more costly version than Canada’s V-shape.
      • L-shape. Greece is the third example and by far the worst shape — not only has the country never recovered its prior output path, but also its growth rate has declined. The distance between old and new path is widening, with lost output continuously growing. This means the crisis has left lasting structural damage to the economy’s supply side. Capital inputs, labor inputs, and productivity are repeatedly damaged. Greece can be seen as an example of L-shape, by far the most pernicious shape.

 

So, what drives “shock geometry” as shown above? The key determinant is the shock’s ability to damage an economy’s supply side, and more specifically, capital formation. When credit intermediation is disrupted and the capital stock doesn’t grow, recovery is slow, workers exit the workforce, skills are lost, productivity is down. The shock becomes structural.

V, U, L shocks can come in different intensities. A V-shaped path may be shallow or deep. A U-shape may come with a deep drop to a new growth path or a small one.

Where does the coronavirus shock fit in so far? The intensity of the shock will be determined by the underlying virus properties, policy responses, as well as consumer and corporate behavior in the face of adversity. But the shape of the shock is determined by the virus’ capacity to damage economies’ supply side, particularly capital formation. At this point, both a deep V-shape and a U are plausible. The battle ahead is to prevent a clear U trajectory.

Understand the damage mechanisms

Keeping the geometries above in mind, this leads to two questions about the Covid-19 shock:

  • What is the mechanism for damage to the supply side?
  • What is the policy response to prevent such damage?

Classically, financial crises cripple an economy’s supply side. There is a long history of such crisis, and policy makers have learned much about dealing with them. But coronavirus extends liquidity and capital problems to the real economy — and does so at unprecedented scale. As though the twin risk of financial and real liquidity shocks were not enough, they are also interrelated, raising the stakes.

Let’s look in more detail at the two paths for Covid-19 to deliver structural damage in a U-shaped scenario:

  • Financial system risks. The unprecedented Covid-19 shock has already generated stress in capital markets, triggering a forceful response from central banks. If liquidity problems persist and real economy problems lead to write-downs, capital problems can arise. While from a policy perspective we may know the solutions, bailouts and recapitalization of banks are politically controversial. In the case of a financial crisis, capital formation would take a huge hit, driving a prolonged slump with damage to labor and productivity as well.
  • Extended real economy “freeze.” The truly unprecedented possibility. Months of social distancing could disrupt capital formation and ultimately labor participation and productivity growth. Unlike financial crises, an extended freeze of this magnitude damaging the supply side would be new territory for policy makers.

The financial and real economy risks are interrelated in two ways: First, a prolonged Covid-19 crisis could drive up the number of real economy bankruptcies, which makes it even harder for the financial system to manage. Meanwhile, a financial crisis would starve the real economy of credit.

It is fair to say the risk profile of the Covid-19 crisis is particularly threatening. While there is a policy playbook for dealing with financial crises, no such thing exists for a large-scale real economy freeze. There is no off-the-shelf cure for liquidity problems of entire real economies.

It is important to recognise that none of the shock scenarios outlined above will be inevitable, linear, or uniform across geographies. Countries will have considerably different experiences for two reasons: the structural resilience of economies to absorb such shocks — call it destiny — and the capacity of medical researchers and policy makers to respond in new ways to an unprecedented challenge — call it innovation. Can they create novel interventions, at unprecedented speed, that will break the intractable and unattractive trade-off between lost lives and creating economic misery?

On the medical side: It’s clear that a vaccine would reduce the need for social distancing and thus relax the policy’s choke-hold on the global economy. But timelines are likely long, and so the focus may well have to be on incremental innovation within the confines of existing solutions.

Examples of such innovation may be found across the entire medical spectrum: on the therapeutic end, existing treatments may prove effective in fighting the disease. Several dozen existing treatments are currently being evaluated. On the other end of the spectrum, organisational innovation will be needed to free up capacity to meet the demand for resources, such as the optimal mobilisation of medical professionals, repurposing of spaces for treatment, and changes to triaging medical care to prioritize the Covid-19 crisis.

On the economic side: In the U.S., politicians have passed a $2 trillion stimulus package to soften the blow of the coronavirus crisis. But policy innovation also will have to occur. For example, central banks operate so-called “discount windows” that provide unlimited short-term finance to ensure liquidity problems don’t break the banking system. What is needed now, today, is a “real economy discount window” that can also deliver unlimited liquidity to sound households and firms.

The emerging policy landscape includes many worthwhile ideas. Among those are “bridge loans” that offer zero-interest loans to households and firms for the duration of the crisis and a generous repayment period; a moratorium on mortgage payments for residential and commercial borrowers; or using bank regulators to lean on banks to provide finance and to rework terms on existing loans. Such policy innovation could have meaningful impact in softening the virus’ impact on economies’ supply side. Yet it also needs agile and efficient execution.

We think there is a chance for innovation to prevent a full-blown U-shape, keeping the shock’s path closer to a deep V-shape than would otherwise be possible. But the battle is underway, and without innovation the odds are not in favor of the less damaging V-shaped scenario.


Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a partner and managing director in BCG’s New York office and chief economist of BCG.

Martin Reeves is a senior partner and managing director in the San Francisco office of BCG and chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, BCG’s think tank on management and strategy.

Paul Swartz is a director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office.

CV-19 kick starts new mentalist era

CV-19 naturally dominates the news at present – it’s all ‘doom and gloom’ as we wonder if the damned invisible bug will ‘get us’ or not

We’re told there are computer models (so they must be right?) being used by experts to determine their advice on what we all should do, the aim being to slow the spread of the bug so the capacity of the NHS to provide intensive care is not exceeded – but the experts clearly don’t have a formula which offers an exact picture of what’s happening, or likely to happen, so my guess is they must be playing all sorts of ‘what if’ games with the limited info they do have

And, whilst current forecasts suggest the UK peak could be 2-3 weeks away (i.e. around mid-end April), it could be many more weeks before it falls to zero and an ‘all clear’ is sounded – with the potential for rebounds if we ‘unlock’ too early

We can only hope that some bright spark, somewhere in the world, has a serendipitous moment and, Fleming-like, produces a panacea vaccine for CV-19 and any other variants further down the line – then we can get back to focusing on the other ‘biggest peace-time issue’ facing all nations – PRODUCTIVITY

As a start, trying to be positive and counter the doom and gloom, consider what good news CV-19 might have brought in its wake

A few ‘top-of-head’ thoughts include:

  • A huge kick-start to the new 21c mentalist world taking over from the old 20c materialist world – currently, we’re at a global watershed
  • A massive change in attitude towards our fellow men and women, locally, nationally and internationally – less greed, less ‘I’m alright Jack’ attitudes and less worship of money and fame – more kindness, more caring for others and more appreciation of what really matters in life
  • A quantum leap, at long last, in the use of technology for home working – far less commuting, far less pollution, far less expensive office space needed, far more productive hours per employee, far better employee motivation through a better work/ social life balance
  • A giant leap towards Keynes’ 15 hour week, and far less working 50+ hour weeks, suddenly seems more likely in the next few years – underpinned by most of the current dull, dirty or dangerous work plus much junior and middle-management work being done by robots and AI (Artificial Intelligence) instead – it’s results that count, not hours input
  • A massive change in the way we buy and sell goods and services – far more home deliveries and dealing over the internet – far less need for high street shops and branches
  • Far less business travel needed to ‘press flesh’ at meetings and seal deals – video-conferencing is already becoming the norm for many
  • And there’s undoubtedly many others which will affect our standard of living and quality of lives

 

MORE GOOD NEWS

One good example of a company gearing up for this new 21c mentalist world is Tata Steel, one of the top global steel companies

The other day, it was announced that Tata Steel had been selected for the 2020 honours list for ‘Excellence in Knowledge Management’ by the Houston (US)-based American Productivity & Quality Centre (APQC).

The annual award recognises Tata Steel’s global standard in systems and processes created and practised for its KM (Knowledge Management) capabilities.

The quality of KM is a critical discipline that decides an organisation’s ability to create, share, use, and manage knowledge and information – more importantly, it is also a measure of the organisation’s ability to retain and leverage knowledge and information that may otherwise be lost when employees change jobs.

Avneesh Gupta, Vice President, Tata Steel, said: ‘Knowledge and information are important assets in any organisation, and like physical and financial assets, requires conscious management – it is imperative to enable structured and quality knowledge management practices to drive business continuity and excellence.

We are proud to receive the recognition of excellence from APQC. This recognition will further motivate us in our continued pursuit to strengthen the management of organisational knowledge, steering us ahead towards creating a passion for learning.’

Dr. Carla O’Dell, Chairman, CEO, APQC, said: ‘All of the award winners generate impactful results through sustainable knowledge management programs.’

Founded in 1977 by business leader and innovator Jack Grayson, APQC, a non-profit organisation, is the world’s foremost authority in benchmarking, best practices, process and performance improvement and knowledge management.

APQC provides information, data, and insights for organisations to work smarter, faster, and with greater confidence. They provide independent, unbiased, and validated research & data to their more than 550 members in 45 industries worldwide. Their members have exclusive access to the world’s largest set of benchmark data, with more than two million data points.

In my view, having visited the APQC at their Houston HQ, they are a model for all other NPCs (National Productivity Centres) to emulate

N.B. Most G7 and G20 nations are wise enough to have set up their own NPC – the glaring exception is the UK!

 

 

Covid -19 should make ‘working from home’ the norm

A flash of insight from New Zealand
Go to any technology website right now, and you’ll see headlines about Google now holding job interviews on Hangouts.

Or IBM stopping all domestic travel for meetings.

Or Twitter encouraging all of its employees to work from home to prevent spreading the virus.

David Court says working from home improves productivity – but will allowing staff to work from home hurt their businesses?
It shouldn’t do.
The vast majority of office workers only need two physical things to “remote work”: a laptop and an internet connection – the only difference will be whether they’re using Slack, or Google Hangouts, or Microsoft Teams to chat, share files and have video meetings and spread gossip – and, to be honest, it doesn’t matter which one they choose, they all do the same thing.

 

“I know this because a few years ago, when I was still working in London and managing a team of eight journalists, my former employer deliberately moved to an office that had fewer desks than it had employees, thus forcing us to adopt a system where several members of the team were always working from home. It was a shrewd business move as the company saved vast amounts on its city centre rent”.

“Fortunately, my employer made another shrewd business move the previous year by introducing the excellent communication tool, Slack – think of it as a professional version of Whatsapp – the place where everyone said “morning” to their colleagues. It was also the place where files were shared, video meetings where held, and importantly, office gossip was spread”.

And finally, at the end of the day, it was the place where everyone said: “that’s me for the day, speak to you tomorrow”.

Without this one piece of software, where 99% of our work conversations were organically happening even in the office, I’m not sure we could have made it work.

From an employee’s perspective, there are obvious perks. There’s no commute. You get to wear comfy pants, or even your pyjamas, for the entire day. You suddenly have all the time in the world to do your laundry. And your lunches improve tenfold.

In Japan some businesses are closing or asking their employees or work from home as coronavirus cases continue to grow
Best of all, if you’re anything like me, you’ll accidentally fall asleep at least once during the afternoon too.
Bliss!

 

What’s even more surprising: you become more productive than ever. That job that you used to stretch out for an entire morning will only take an hour at home.

Better still, the quality of your work didn’t suffer. The opposite. The lack of office distractions, you simply mute Slack when you’re busy, means you’re able to dedicate your full attention to the task in hand.

Surprisingly, remote working worked from a management perspective too. You continued to give your team their daily and weekly tasks, as usual. And your team continues to get them done, as usual.

Overall productivity, rightly, becomes the thing that matters most.

All of the above, I imagine, is what Microsoft, Google, IBM and Twitter (and maybe your company too) will be experiencing in the next couple of weeks (and more).

Andrew Neel adds his pennyworth

So why hasn’t working from home been adopted more? Surely, companies would jump at the chance to save money from city centre office real estate?

Perhaps it’s because of something Steve Jobs once said: “There’s a temptation in our networked age to think that ideas can be developed by email and iChat. That’s crazy. Creativity comes from spontaneous meetings, from random discussions.”

It’s hard to argue with that. I agree that creativity and business need to be face-to-face (at least to some degree).

However, I’d also wager that if companies are forced to implement remote working strategies in the coming weeks, they’ll soon find out that remote working (to some degree) is very doable.

They’ll also see an improvement in employee morale and productivity, and they might even be able to save some money on office space too.

A pandemic positive!

Hamza Mudassar, writing in ‘Entrepreneur’, believes the global Covid-19 pandemic currently raging  around the world ‘will shape businesses for decades to come’

Black swan events, such as economic recessions and pandemics, change the trajectory of governments, economies and businesses — altering the course of history.

The Black Death in the 1300s broke the long-ingrained feudal system in Europe and replaced it with the more modern employment contract.

A mere three centuries later, a deep economic recession — thanks to the 100-year war between England and France — kick-started a major innovation drive that radically improved agricultural productivity.

Fast forward to more recent times, the SARS pandemic of 2002-2004 catalyzed the meteoric growth of a then-small ecommerce company called Ali Baba and helped establish it at the forefront of retail in Asia. This growth was fueled by underlying anxiety around traveling and human contact, similar to what we see today with Covid-19.

The financial crises of 2008 also produced its own disruptive side effects. Airbnb and Uber shot up in popularity across the west as the subprime crises meant lower savings and income for the masses, forcing people to share assets in the form of spare rooms and car rides in order to cover for the deficit. Doubling down on this trend, videogame business models rapidly changed as well, with 2011 seeing the rise of the free-to-play business model, thanks to Nexon in Asia and King in the west.

With Covid-19, we are already seeing early signs of a shift in how consumers and businesses behave.

Remote working is being encouraged by tech and non-tech companies alike, airline profitability is getting impacted by low seat occupancy, supply chains are getting disrupted globally and retail stores are running out of ibuprofen, dry goods and toilet paper en masse.

Some of these changes are direct, short-term responses to the crises and will revert to regular levels once Covid-19 is contained.

However, some of these shifts will continue on, creating a long-term digital disruption that will shape businesses for decades to come.

The three dimensions of impact

Pandemics have a direct impact on biological, psychological and economic dimensions. Its intensity varies depending on the mortality and morbidity rate of the pathogen at hand, as well as the time it takes for it to spread.

For Covid-19, the biological impact has been quick to escalate and has been the hardest-hitting for the elderly.

The psychological impact can be observed in stock markets across the world – investors are underconfident about the future as the information on the spread of Covid-19 and its impact on global productivity is at best incomplete and at worse, incorrect.

The global population is also facing psychological impact, with low morale and increased isolation as human contact and freedom to travel are getting heavily curtailed.

Last, but definitely not the least, the economic impact has been significant. In the short term, the supply of various essential products has been disrupted and the demand for various products and services have dropped off. If this continues, Covid-19 could very well affect global GDP negatively.

Longer-term innovation and changes in trends will come about as consumers and businesses try earnestly to normalize the impact on psychological and economic dimensions — provided containment is reached and the biological impact is resolved.

Studying over 50 startups that gained scale around the times of global crises via the lens of this framework clears the mist:

  • To start off, a recession usually brings about an acceleration in business model change, driving down costs to serve and prices.
  • On the other hand, pandemics tend to enable entirely new categories of businesses.
  • It also becomes quite clear that both pandemics and recessions are accelerants to innovation versus being direct causes of it i.e. these startups and business ideas were around but gained popularity at a faster rate thanks to a certain black swan event.

 

With these learnings and frameworks in mind, below are three macro innovations we can expect to stick around post-Covid-19.

Supply chains will merge into resilient ecosystems

Global supply chains have long been geared towards keeping quality relatively constant while driving lower costs at every step. This has resulted in significant concentration risk in terms of geographies and vendors for most companies.

For example, China scaling down due to Covid-19, and creating knock-on supply impacts we are seeing today, has exposed the lack of resilience in this approach. There is a sharp need for a more distributed, coordinated and trackable supply of components across multiple geographies and vendors while maintaining economies of scale. This would require global platforms to be erected that use sophisticated technologies such as 5G, robotics, IoT and blockchain to help link multiple buyers with multiple vendors reliably across a ‘mesh’ of supply chains. This will also have a knock-on impact on the adoption of self-driving cars and delivery drones as the demand for ecommerce logistics will far outstrip the number of drivers needed to fulfil them. The usual B2B platform suspects such as Amazon and Ali Baba are likely to step up and compete for the ownership of this more sophisticated supply chain ecosystem in the next decade.

Digital bureaucracies will become mainstream

The Covid-19 breakout has caused government bureaucracies to spin into action quicker than ever before.

China broke records by constructing a 645,000 sq. ft hospital in just 10 days in Wuhan. South Korea drove rapid testing of over 200,000 of its citizens and used smartphones to tag the movement of the infected — alerting the non-infected of those movements via real-time updates. All of these efforts, as well as transparency of biological impact, could have been improved if there were more smart cities in the world. According to the latest study by the University of Glasgow, only 27 out of 5,500 large-sized cities are considered leading in this area. As governments learn from the Covid-19 experience, it will shift investment in favour of smart cities as it would be critical to have them in order to better manage the next black swan event. Key players benefiting from this shift in gears would be smart governments, focused companies such as Cisco, Microsoft and Siemens as well as digital city startups across Europe and the US.

Mental health support will be provided at scale, digitally

It is straight forward to predict that the Covid-19 is going to be an accelerant for remote working as well as online education.

What is harder to figure out is what will happen once a majority of the knowledge workforce needs to work together remotely, indefinitely.

It is likely that this shift will impact morale, productivity and mental health of workers throughout the globe, and businesses need to prepare for it.

For companies looking to add the human touch digitally to their workplace, the choices are limited today — with Humu, a startup by ex-google HR chief Laszlo Bock, being in pole position to capitalise on this.

A handful of other tech companies, such as Github and Automattic, which run predominantly on a remote collaboration model can also choose to productise their insights and capabilities in order to help other companies cope.

For individuals working remotely, things are looking much better. Several mental health startups such as Braive and Moment Pebble can double down on solving the problem of isolation while business networking apps such as Ripple can help solve the mentoring and development challenges that come with being a remote worker.

A post-coronavirus world

Covid-19 is a terrible shock to the global economy as well as to the thousands of individuals and families it has affected.

Companies in the immediate term need to ensure that the health and safety of its workers, partners and suppliers come first.

Over the longer term, Covid-19 has irrevocably changed the way businesses will compete over the next decade.

Firms that choose to capitalise on these underlying changes will succeed and the ones that don’t will get disrupted.

Financial data can be ‘dangerously misleading’

This is a transcript of a second broadcast interview of UK economist Ed Smythe by the USA’s Real News Network

GREGORY WILPERT: Welcome to the Real News Network. I’m Gregory Wilpert, joining you from Quito, Ecuador. The Bank of England has raised interest rates in the UK for the first time in a decade. The official bank rate has been lifted from 0.25% to 0.5%, representing the first increase since July 2007. Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, defended the move as necessary to respond to rising inflation

MARK CARNEY: Effectively, what the bank has decided is to take our foot a little off the accelerator. The economy is growing a little faster than its speed limit. That speed limit has come down over the years since the crisis, for a variety of reasons. We’ve got unemployment at a 42 year low. More people in work than ever before. We’re seeing the first signs of wages starting to pick up, but most importantly for those watching, that real income squeeze, which has been hitting households over the course of this year, the worst is ending. It’s starting to turn now. Still, even with this rate move, we’re still providing a lot of support to the economy.

GREGORY WILPERT: Joining us today to discuss what all this means for everyday British residents is Ed Smythe. Ed is an economist and researcher at the financial research organisation, Positive Money. He worked for nine years in asset management, and as an equity analyst and micro economist. Welcome back to the Real News, Ed

ED SMYTHE: Thank you for having me back

GREGORY WILPERT: Can you briefly describe to us what this decision to raise interest rates will mean, and who we can expect the winners and losers to be as a result of the rate rise?

ED SMYTHE: Well it’s worth understanding this is a very small 0.25% interest change which will benefit, to some extent, those people who have deposit accounts if the banks pass this through. It’s quite likely that they won’t do so. The people who will lose will obviously be those people on variable rate mortgages, who will see them reset, or people who are on fixed rate mortgages, who will see them reset over the next couple of years

  1. Financial measures

_________________________________________________________________

There’s certainly winners and there’s losers. And there’s also a case for taking a step back to think about what’s going to be the effect on the micro economic conditions, in terms of the ability for consumers to take on debt, and also for businesses to invest. It’s worth thinking about this effect, not just in terms of winners and losers, but how it will drive the economy going forward

GREGORY WILPERT: So the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, said during the interview, “What we have been doing since the Brexit referendum is our utmost to support jobs and activity in this economy.” But is it true that the only options were to either keep interest rates where they were or to raise them? Were there other options, in other words?

ED SMYTHE: Well, as it stands, the Bank of England is sticking very much within its conventional thought-set, to the extent it’s used quantitative easing to push down interest rates at the long end of the curve. We argued that effectively it’s got  itself into a situation where it’s facing these incredibly tough choices. If it leaves interest rates where they are, you’ll continue to drive the economy on rising debt or rising asset prices, feeding into a household deficit, which is the highest it’s been in over 100 years, or if you raise them, you risk bringing the whole deck of cards down, to the extent that that debt then becomes vulnerable or asset prices come down. So what we’re saying is that you need a radically new tool, a tool which is overt monetary financing to enable banks, the central bank, to create money, a certain amount of creditably constrained money, which goes directly to government, so that they can boost spending in a sustainable and fair fashion

GREGORY WILPERT: I mean, what kind of tool are we talking about? Can you give us a little bit more detail?

ED SMYTHE: M4 – we sometimes call it ‘QE for people’ – Is the policy whereby the central bank could produce 60 to 70 billion pounds worth every year to purchase zero interest perpetual bonds from the government, and it would enable the government to then deliver that spending into the economy to deliver jobs, etc., and to spend it on the things that we actually need, like health care, education, and infrastructure. And boost the productive capacity of the economy

GREGORY WILPERT: Let’s take a look now at the issue of inequality because that’s been one of the major issues that you’ve also been concerned with. Last year, Mark Carney argued that inequality in the UK was actually declining and that the poorest people in Britain saw the greatest gains and wealth as a result of the other kind of quantitative easing that they had been implementing.

  1. Financial measures

_________________________________________________________________

However, recently you wrote an article entitled ‘The Bank of England’s Depiction of Inequality Data is Dangerously Misleading.’ Explain to us what your concerns are, with regard to how the Bank of England is speaking about inequality in the UK

ED SMYTHE: This was a 2016 speech by Mark Carney where the governor set out to talk some hard truths, to talk about some of the issues that people have been talking about, inequality and its relation to the policies of QE. Now he presented a chart in this, which talked about the fact that the lowest quintile in terms of those who own wealth, the lowest 20% had gained the most over the period from 2006 to 2008, to 2012 to 2014. On a percentage change basis, they’d seen their wealth go up 43% and all quintiles have benefited. What we did was we looked at the underlying data to see what were the absolute numbers for each of the different quintiles. What we found was quite disturbing because the lowest quintile, although they had the highest percentage increase, actually had an absolute increase of only £1,600, so they went from minus £3,800 to minus £2,200. They were still in debt at the end of this period. If you said the top quintile, the top 20%, they saw their assets go from £980,000 to £1.3 million, so an increase of £320,000, or 189 times that of the poorest quintile in society. The idea that this can be presented as a chart in which the poorest have gained most, we do think is dangerously misleading. And the real consequences of this are that when Mark Carney says it’s important that the government takes fiscal steps to offset the effects on monetary policy and how it has affected wealth inequalities, it’s very difficult to do so if the government isn’t being presented with its data in an accurate fashion. And also, Mark Carney would do well to perhaps come out with some suggestions about what sort of fiscal policy he would have in mind to help redress such big swings between the top quintile and the bottom quintile of wealth

GREGORY WILPERT: Let’s just quickly take this back again to the issue of the interest rate rise. What effect would the interest rate rise have on inequality in this context?

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Financial measures

_________________________________________________________________

ED SMYTHE: Obviously the danger is if the interest rate does trigger a reduction in investment at a time when business uncertainty is already rising with the negotiations in Brussels. If it does have an impact on the ability for consumers and students to take on extra debt going forward, it does mean that it will put the brakes on the economy at a time when the economy and real wages are already struggling. And it potentially creates the conditions for the next financial crisis, or at least front-loads the timing of that crisis. Then the implications to inequality are very significant indeed. If that doesn’t happen, we’re back to the original starting conversation – there are some people who will be highly leveraged with variable rate mortgages, who will suffer, and in fact it’s more likely that the banks will not pass this on. So few depositors will actually see their interest rates rise to see a benefit here

GREGORY WILPERT: Okay. Well we’ll continue to keep an eye on this situation with regard to the economy, and we’ll probably get back to you. We were speaking to Ed Smythe, an economist and researcher at the financial research organisation, Positive Money. Thanks again, Ed, for having joined us today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important trends for SME productivity

All business managers want their teams to get more done in less time – this means there needs to be a focus on prioritising efficient workflows while remaining consistently effective.
According to therealtimereport.com, there are some important business productivity trends that all business owners and their teams need to be aware of :

1. The Rise of AI

Already, artificial intelligence (AI) is improving productivity in a wide range of sectors. AI is no longer something that you read about in technology reviews – it has a very real presence in the workplace.

Every business should be looking at AI in terms of:

  • Virtual assistants
  • Administrative tasks
  • Data processing
  • Customer service

 

As AI continues to become increasingly sophisticated, aspects like voice recognition will only grow more useful for the brands that want to maximise their productivity by freeing up man-hours for more valuable actions.

2. The Best Cutting-Edge Tools

Today’s business owners have a vast array of beneficial tools available that can make productivity gains easier to achieve.

The hardest task is assessing which of the latest technologies and software options are most suited to your business model.

When areas like ‘project management’ can quickly become ever more complicated after even a single meeting, it’s essential that those managers and owners that want to prioritise productivity have access to the best project management tools available.

Fail to make use of the right tools and your productivity will fall behind those competitors that are using them.

3. A Shift to Single-Tasking

In the 80s, employees were sought who claimed to be experts at multitasking. It’s easy to see why this was considered a skill worth focusing on since it suggests that more tasks get done in less time.

However, single-tasking is quickly becoming the norm. Now, you will be just as likely to request some dedicated offline time so that you can focus on a specific task, and that’s good news for productivity.

Multiple studies have shown that multitasking is not an effective work strategy, and single-tasking looks like being one of the most important business buzzwords in the 2020s.

4. The Remote Worker

If there’s one business trend that’s stood out over the last five years, it’s the growing number of remote workers.This trend is going nowhere, and that means productivity needs to be looked at more closely when it comes to the employees that aren’t in the office.

However, research consistently shows that remote workers are more productive than their office-bound counterparts.

That means remote working could be the key to a more productive workspace, seemingly at odds with the very concept of the traditional workspace.

Overall

Productivity needs to be the goal for everyone that owns their own business or runs a busy department.

If you want to get more from your teams, keep up to date with the latest trends and adopt those that match your work environment.

Make use of the best trends, and your productivity will soar.

 

Capitalism or Communism?

Communism has been defined as a system where:

  • People work according to their ability and receive according to their needs
  • All big decisions are made at the centre
  • All data is processed at the centre

 

Capitalism, on the other hand, is an alternative where:

  • People are free to buy/ sell/ invest in whatever they like
  • They can make their own decisions
  • Good choices soon follow – mistakes are soon spotted and corrected
  • National data is made available to all

 

Matthew Parris in The Times made the distinction clearer:

  • Free market competition is thought by some to be wasteful
  • Competition fragments provision, duplicates services in one area, forgoes economies of scale, creates uneven provision across the country, creates an invidious incentive to outperform comrades and siphons off money to profiteering shareholders
  • Co-ordination, collaboration and co-operation are needed across all sectors
  • Different materials which are delivered by different suppliers to get a cheaper deal must be stopped – as must all performance-related bonuses
  • The state should match supply to forecast demand – it can do this better!
  • And set fair prices, fair wages and agreed standards for quality
  • Hence communism failed

 

And given “productivity is the guts of capitalism” according to Warren Buffett, capitalist supreme, it’s interesting that Deng Xiaoping, communist leader of the People’s Republic of China, also said: “without high productivity, socialism is nothing but a boast”

 

N.B. QUOTE:

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money – Maggie Thatcher

Universal Credit conflicts

In a new report, presented to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, researchers argue Universal Credit should focus on supporting people into decent and productive work where their skills and capabilities will be developed and used effectively.

A ‘work first, then work more’ approach facilitated by Universal Credit, which is focused on placing conditions on individual workers, fails to consider long-standing issues of poor work quality and management practices, the research says.

Lead author Dr Katy Jones – senior research associate at Manchester Metropolitan University’s Centre for Decent Work and Productivity – said: “The DWP (Department for Work and Pensions) claims that Universal Credit will help ‘business to grow’ and ‘improve productivity’, but how this will be achieved is unclear.

“At a time of low unemployment, but also low productivity, the key challenge for policymakers is not moving people into work, but ensuring that, where appropriate, Universal Credit claimants are supported into decent and productive jobs where their skills and capabilities will be developed and utilised.”

The report, funded by the Productivity Insights Network, also explains how current policies fail to address the needs of unemployed workers and appear to be in conflict with broader policy agendas focussed on improving productivity and the quality of work in the UK.

Researchers spoke to 12 employers, including SMEs and large corporations across a range of sectors, to gather their understanding on the nature of work and productivity as well as their views on the potential introduction of ‘in-work conditionality’ (IWC) to welfare claimants on a low income.

Under this new policy, working social-security claimants may be expected to increase their pay by searching for and applying for additional work or taking on extra hours.

Concerns from employers are outlined in the report ‘Universal Credit and In-Work Conditionality – a productive turn?’

One employer, a soft play centre for children, told researchers: “We love it when people want to progress in the business, but there aren’t so many managerial positions that we have here, so it’s difficult to really progress that far…unless we give somebody extra responsibilities, they’re all on a very similar wage.”

Employers interviewed in the report also expressed concerns about the impact of the new policy on workers themselves.

Another employer, a housing association, said: “It’s not about the process or the ticking of a box. It’s actually about the career management of that person to help them grow into something else…helping them find the right work, rather than just any work.”

The full report is available online at the Productivity Insights Network.

P.S. If you think the above is critical, look at what Professor John Seddon of Vanguard Consultants says about Universal Credit, and what he has been saying ever since the project started – essentially ‘it will take far longer than expected, its design is such that it will never work well, and it will cost far far more than planned’ – each of which has come true, with the project continually being extended and the costs already ‘through the roof’

Following the wrong stars?

 

“The lacklustre level of productivity growth in the UK, commonly measured as the level of output per hour worked, has been evident ever since the financial crisis in 2008/09 and has, as of yet, shown so signs of coming to an end”
So claimed an article by Eleanor Stevenson, written for Ebury Partners UK Ltd, where she proved her point with the following two charts, saying they ‘best highlight what has been dubbed the UK’s productivity crisis
Figure 1: Output per worker & output per hour 
Her conclusion – The traditional measures of output per worker and output per hour worked both remain very weak (around 0.1% year-on-year growth)

Figure 2: UK Labour Productivity vs. trend line

Like most others, her conclusions were:
  • The upward trend witnessed in total UK productivity prior to the financial crisis had been pretty consistent since the data began in 1960
  • Since then, however, this upward trend has clearly flattened
  • Had the pre-crisis trend (between 1985 – 2007) continued, UK productivity would be approximately 17-18% higher than it currently is

 

 

Note that Stevenson, again like most others, takes the official statistics to be ‘gospel truth’, painting a true and fair picture of the overall health of the UK economy

But what if these statistics are fundamentally flawed – what if they don’t paint the correct picture – what if they even miss much of it?

For example, consider both the national outputs and inputs used which determine national productivity levels:

  • Outputs – GDP is widely known to be seriously flawed – much national output is not counted – other outputs are miscounted – and the outputs of free public sector services are included by valuing them at cost, so the more profligate they are, the greater the assumed value of their outputs
  • Inputs – Labour numbers or hours worked are easily countable and so measured – however, capital and material inputs are not – hence we are only offered national labour productivity statistics as if they were a proxy for national productivity levels – this may have been acceptable once, when labour dominated input costs but, as Paul Krugman might say,  it’s no longer ‘almost everything’

 

So the above graphs are very probably giving us the wrong impression of what’s been happening in the UK economy

In particular:

  • As national outputs become cheaper and/ or better at supplying all our needs, wants and likes, so we demand less new stuff at less cost to replace old stuff – so GDP growth is bound to slow down, even fall, unless there’s additional, completely new stuff coming down the line, something which many experts think is no longer happening – hence, SoLs (Standards of Living) are said to have stalled also
  • However, much of the new stuff on offer is free, albeit highly valued by all – this means it goes uncounted by GDP so SoLs appear significantly less than actual – efforts by some economists to put a value on such freebies and so increase GDP are, to date, limited to asking a sample of people what they would pay to avoid losing access to the likes of Facebook, Twitter or What’s app
  • In many ways, SoL is an old-fashioned way of assessing the success of any economy – it’s largely determined by all the tangible stuff people could and can afford
  • But QoL (Quality of Living) has been coming up fast on the rails in recent times with many considering QoL already to be of equal importance
  • But there’s no generally accepted formula for quantifying QoL of any nation at any one time

 

So we’re all left with having to accept GDP per capita and GDP per labourforce-numbers as the main measures for national wealth and productivity

So the doom and gloom currently being peddled by just about every economic expert or commentator, not just Stevenson above, is plain wrong – misleading even

So national economic policies and investment plans, based on such ‘sand’, will be lucky to be effective

We’re currently measuring G7 economies using old-world error-prone measures – our leaders and their advisers thus have only a partial picture – one which will become more and more unrepresentative of the total picture

We need better stars for our wise men to follow

 

 

Mavericks don’t fit straitjackets

Recall what the great Steve Jobs said: “Think differently” when giving reasons for the global success of Apple

Then consider the spat between Finn Russell, the supremely talented Scotland fly-half and Gregor Townsend, the current Scotland rugby team manager and ex-fly-half, which was reported on in the Sunday Times by ex-England fly-half, Stuart Barnes

Russell has been dropped from the Scottish team for ‘not following team protocols’

Barnes says:

  • “Townsend is now part of  the joyless corporate world that turns pleasure into pain with overly structured game plans subsuming individual talent”
  • “Russell is that rarest of rugby beasts – a free thinker – and so a threat to the game-plan-gurus who change rugby into the robotic process it has become”

 

Without Russell, Scotland monopolised possession at the start of their latest international against England but could not score

Barnes is convinced that Russell would have made all the difference with his ability to ‘play what he sees’ versus the rigid structure that Eddy Jones, the England coach, requires his team to follow

Russell says: “I need to do what makes me happy and makes me play my best rugby” – he also praises his French club, Racing 92, saying: “They treat you like an adult”

This implies Townsend runs a rugby kindergarten whereas the previous Scotland coach, Vern Cotter: “Had a very simple game plan but you could play anything off it”

Others will see that as ‘dangerously hedonistic’ despite there  being nothing better for team morale than a happy group of players – and nothing worse than a band of blokes just keeping their heads down

Russell’s vision of the looser plan has to be the brighter one – one which can excel as well as entertain

Barnes goes on to liken Russell’s attitude to that of the great American jazz musician, Miles Davis: “He knew the notes he needed to hit to give his tune shape – musical annotations from which he could drift into the floating free form of jazz  that made him into a musician like few others”

Barnes concludes that:

  • “The globalisation of the planet, in a corporate as well as sporting sense, has made everything familiar, safe, almost sanitised – the greater the assets the coach can call upon, the less the freedom of the player is recognised – the deification of the coach has become the downsizing of the playmaker”
  • “Progress is not linear in any walk of life”
  • “We think we are moving into a brave new world with the sort of statistical obsession Russell castigates – instead, we are coaching our way into a dark age where a smile and the ability to do something sizzling is no longer welcome”

 

Let Steve Jobs have the last word on this issue: “It’s better to be a pirate than join the navy”

 

Piketty tackles inequality

Thomas Piketty, the French economist ‘rock star’, has just published a new tome – Capital and Ideology – a mere 1,100 pages of it

David Smith reported in the Sunday Times that ‘it looks at inequality regimes over time’

Key points Piketty makes include: “Every human society must justify its inequalities” – but notes that the UK and USA have not done so – apparently, inequality there is  much higher than 40 years ago yet economic growth per head has halved

He has little truck with the argument that  entrepreneurs who have built businesses deserve different treatment from those who only run them – and proposes a 5% wealth tax because billionaire entrepreneurs succeed  as a result of the efforts of many, including the state – as evidence, he cites Bill Gates as not having invented the computer by himself

As for overpaid CEOs, he thinks governments that reduced top taxes helped to create the problem – when top taxes were high, there was no incentive for top execs to earn so much – now the average UK CEO earns (gets paid) some 120 times the average income

Piketty’s simple formula for higher income taxes would be:

  • People earning half the average income would pay just 10% in tax
  • This would rise to 40% for those on twice the average
  • Then up to 60%, 70% and eventually 90%

 

And for wealth taxes, they would be based on property values and follow a similar schedule

He recognises this could be a recipe for a tidal wave of wealth leaving the UK – a wave that he would stop by imposing an ‘exit tax’

But what of the property-rich but income-poor who might be crippled by such a wealth tax?

“The tax would have to treat them differently and making sure the gains are not just as a result of inflation”

However, he menacingly adds: “A large property holding is an indicator of a large wealth holding”

Overall, he says: “These taxes would provide a basic income for everybody and an endowment for young people entering adulthood” – a policy, Smith says, which is ‘conspicuous by its lack of success in trials to date’

The problem here is many of our leaders/ decision-makers take this guy’s views seriously

 

Inherited inequality

The following extracts were taken from an Audrey Pollnow review of ‘The Meritocracy Trap: How America’s Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite’ by Daniel Markovits

Markovits, a professor of law at Yale, argues that a system that once promoted social mobility has created a self-perpetuating class of elites – in particular:

  • Elite workers now earn far more than middle-class workers than was true mid-last-­century
  • Workers paid in the top 1% are far more likely to come from wealthy families

 

Whilst some say this shows that meritocracy has not been pursued aggressively enough, and the children of the wealthy hold high-paying jobs simply because they’re well-connected, Markovits counters that the individuals who hold these top jobs typically are compensated for the economic value they provide

The problem is super-productive workers are produced by super-intensive educations – through the time and money their parents invest in their education at home and elsewhere

Those who succeed amass the resources/ funds needed to educate and so raise the next generation of meritocrats – their kids

Research shows that, whether through direct parental spending or access to well-funded or well-endowed schools, the children of the rich receive a more expensive education

Hence, we shouldn’t be surprised when the children of the well-to-do are really the most qualified for admission to elite universities

Markovits concludes:Meritocracy is pernicious – like aristocracy, it prevents upward social mobility – but unlike aristocracy, it claims that everyone gets the social position he deserves”

The claim that the people at the top have earned their status is bad for the middle-people who, thanks to technological and economic changes, are often underemployed, and whom many elites regard with contempt rather than noblesse oblige

Markovits argues that one’s class reflects one’s worth, that elite life is meaningful and middle-class life mediocre

But meritocracy isn’t all that good for elites, either

Because elite work is very competitive, the rich now work more hours per week than anyone else – in fact, they typically spend more time working than they would like to – however, unlike the rich of yore who collected rents on the assets they inherited, the rich of today inherit an expensive education which they can translate into wealth and status only by exploiting themselves – and the latter takes a toll on them such as high rates of anxiety, depression and suicides

And the enslaved elites work too hard not because they are forced to but because they value extreme effort – they have been told throughout their lives that they are the anointed, the best and the brightest, cut out to do great things – unsurprisingly, this becomes a central part of their identity – for them, work is not merely a way of supporting their families – it’s also their vocation, the way they perform their identity

Conclusions:

  1. There’s no doubt, it’s better to be rich than poor – richness gives one more freedom to do what one wants to do – poverty can be a major worry and constraint on life
  2. But the more money one has, after a certain level the less happy people seem to be
  3. Indeed, one sees more happy-smiley faces, kindness and generosity amongst the abject poor, perhaps because they know they’re all in the same boat and not forever comparing themselves with others who might be better off – visit the slums of Jakarta, Mombasa or Havana for good examples
  4. So maybe we should doubt the pressures for ladder-climbing after all?
  5. Maybe the route to happiness is a UBI – Universal Basic Income – as recommended by some economists

 

 

Process productivity decided by humans

By Tommy Weir, for Gulf News and author of “Leadership Dubai Style”

When it comes to boosting productivity, people immediately point to the need for process improvement, automation or outsourcing, whilst overlooking the most important factor of all – the human worker
Indeed, many companies are happy to splash cash on technologies and strategies that promise process gains, yet they baulk at the idea of investing in the productivity of their people, even though that is precisely where the need for improvement lies
Consider the common shortcomings we endured on a recent trip to New York – it was 11a.m. when we arrived, too early to check-in to our Marriott hotel, but we wanted to drop our bags and pre-check- in to confirm our reserved room type (two rooms, each capable of accommodating two adults and one child) – with mission accomplished, we headed out to enjoy the day – we also received a mid-afternoon phone call stating that our rooms were ready
Great news
Only that wasn’t to be – the rooms we had reserved were not available – instead, we had been allocated two rooms, each with one king-size bed and neither with sufficient space for roll-away beds
“We’re fully booked tonight and can’t change your rooms,” said a rushed employee – minutes later, this escalated to the manager who started our conversation by saying that I should have informed them of our requirements in advance!
Poor customer service aside, the display of incompetence was astounding – not only had I stated our requirements in the reservation, I had also sent a follow-up note directly to the hotel and reiterated it face-to-face that very morning
Some might call this a failure of processes, but to me it was a classic case of poor human productivity
What shouldn’t have even been a problem in the first place took three employees two long hours to resolve – had they been productive, they wouldn’t have wasted their time, or ours – this is a good example of what UK consultancy Vanguard Consultants call Failure Demand
And the blunders didn’t end there
The next morning, I woke early and decided to get some work done before my wife and kids surfaced – slipping out of the hotel, I made my way to Starbucks but, when I arrived, their doors were firmly shut – they should have opened at 6 a.m., and I was right on time, so I joined other early risers braving the cold for a pre-dawn caffeine shot, and waited
Soon, a line had formed and the owner of the neighbouring mini-mart strolled over and asked: “What time do they open?” feigning concern – “Ten minutes ago,” I replied sarcastically – “Well, I have coffee inside,” he announced, pointing to his store – with that, the Starbucks line gratefully filed into his minimart
Clever guy
Was Starbucks’ failure to open at 6 a.m. a process breakdown? – No
Like the Marriott hotel booking debacle, the mistake was down to the employees, whom I had watched through the window as they prepared for opening, apparently oblivious – or indifferent – to the time

 

BIF drains, not lines, national coffers

The following are extracts from ‘Divested’ by Ken-Hou Lin and Megan Tobias Neely

They claim the BIF – Banking Insurance Finance – sector is draining, not lining, developed nations’ coffers

For proof, they look to the USA’s experience

Until the 1970s, the financial sector accounted for a mere 15% of all US corporate profits:

  • Banks took deposits from households and corporations and loaned those funds to homebuyers and businessmen – most of their revenue was generated by interest, by paying depositors lower interest rates than they charged borrowers – they made profits in the “spread” between the rates:
    • They also issued and collected cheques to facilitate payments
    • And they provided space in their vaults to safeguard valuable items
  • Insurance companies received premiums from their customers and paid out when costly incidents occurred

Since then, the financial sector has tripled, accounting for 45% of all US corporate profits – these profits arose from increasingly complex fee-based products such as securitisation, derivatives trading, fund and wealth management, card services, M&As – most of which take place between financial institutions, not individuals or companies – hence they remain opaque to the general public

At the same time, wealth inequality has soared – compensation for corporate executives and those working on Wall Street rose rapidly whilst mass layoffs became a common business practice instead of a last resort

The result is the top 0.1% of U.S. households now own more than 20% of the entire nation’s wealth

And non-interest revenue – from non-traditional banking activities – has risen from less than 10% of all revenue in the early 1980s to more than 35% in the early 2000s – for example, just before the 2008 financial crisis:

  • JPMorgan Chase earned $52 billion in interest income but almost $94 billion in non-interest income – half was generated from activities such as investment banking and venture capital, a quarter from trading
  • Bank of America earned about 47% of its total income from non-interest sources, including deposit fees and credit card services

This new banking model has led to a significant transfer of national resources into the financial sector, not only for corporate profits but also its elite employees’ compensation

Related industries, such as legal services and accounting, have also benefited from this boom

However, many now question whether these non-interest activities actually create value commensurate with their costs – excessive returns without corresponding benefits?

Consider the historical capital-labour relationship

 

For most of the 20th century, labour was considered a crucial driver of American prosperity – its role, however, has been marginalised as corporations increasingly attend to the demands of the stock market

To maximise returns to shareholders, American firms have adopted wide-ranging cost-cutting strategies, from automation to offshoring and outsourcing – downsizing and benefit reductions are common ways that companies trim the cost of their domestic workforce

Many of these strategies are advocated by financial institutions, which earn handsome fees from mergers and acquisitions, spin-offs and other corporate restructuring

As non-financial firms expanded their operations to become lenders and traders, they came to earn a growing share of their profits from interest and dividends – intensified foreign competition in the 1970s, combined with deregulated interest rates in the 1980s, drove this diversion, with large U.S. non-finance firms shifting investments from production to financial assets – instead of targeting the consumers of their manufacturing or retail products to raise profits and reward workers, these firms extended their financial arms into leasing, lending, and mortgage markets to raise profits and reward shareholders

As American corporations shifted their focus from productive to financial activities, purchasing financial instruments instead of stores, plants, and machinery, labour no longer represented a crucial component in the generation of profits, and the workers who performed productive tasks became devalued

In addition to marginalising labour, the rise of finance pushed economic uncertainties traditionally pooled at the firm level down to individuals:

  • Prior to the 1980s, large American corporations often operated in multiple product markets, hedging the risk of an unforeseen downturn in any particular market – lasting employment contracts afforded workers promotion opportunities, health, pension and other benefits, unaffected by the risks the company absorbed
  • Since the 1980s, fund managers have instead pressured conglomerates to specialise only in their most profitable activities, pooling risk at the fund level, not at the firm level

Consequently, American firms have become far more vulnerable to sudden economic downturns

To cope with this increased risk, financial professionals advised corporations to reconfigure their employment relationships from permanent arrangements to ones that emphasise flexibility — the firm’s flexibility, not the employees’:

  • Workers were seen as independent agents rather than members or stakeholders of the firm
  • As more and more firms adopted contingent employment arrangements, workers were promised low minimum hours but required to be available whenever summoned
  • Their compensation shifted, too, from a fair-wage model that sustains long-term employment to one that ties wages and employment to profits – should their portion of the company lag in profits, their job, not just their compensation, is on the line
  • Retirement benefits were also transformed from guarantees of financial security to ones dependent on the performance of financial markets

 

This model mostly benefits high-wage workers who can afford the fluctuations, but many low-wage workers, not knowing how many hours they will work and how much pay they will receive, are forced to borrow to meet their short-term needs

Retirement has also become risky for many – it no longer depends on age but financial status – many middle-class families have had to cash out their retirement accounts to cover emergency expenses – many others fear they cannot afford to exit the workforce when the time comes – and these are the lucky ones

  • The abundance of credit provides affluent families the opportunity to invest or meet short-term financial needs at low cost
  • At the same time, middle-income households carry increasingly heavy debt burdens, curtailing their ability to invest and save
  • And low-income households are either denied credit or face enormously high borrowing rates from pay-day loan companies that go beyond preventing savings to imprison the impoverished in a cycle of debt payments – unable to pay the bills on their debts, an increasing number of families have become insolvent, owning less than they owe

 

The credit market has thus emerged as a regressive system of redistribution benefiting the rich and devastating the poor

Taken together, the rising inequality in developed economies, not just the USA, is not a “natural” result of economic growth but reflects how developed economies currently are organised and resources distributed


The puzzle to persist?

According to Valentina Romei, writing in the Financial Times, the last decade  saw living standards in the UK grow at their slowest rate since the second world war

She says: “The jobs bonanza, and the economy’s performance as a whole, was undermined by weak productivity, which grew at its slowest level in 60 years”

She supports this view about the last decade by making four points

1. Per capita output was less than half the postwar level 

  • Growth in per capita output, the biggest driver of increased living standards, averaged less than half the rate of the postwar period
  • Perhaps we’re not increasing the value added (and so prices paid) per worker or hour worked – due to most growth being in low value-adding sectors such as retail

 

2. Uninterrupted but sluggish expansion

  • The UK enjoyed uninterrupted economic (GDP) growth
  • However, it was slow, with an annual average of 1.8%
  • This was far below the overall average of 2.4% in the 40 years to 1990

 

3. A decade of booming jobs

  • The UK experienced a jobs boom in the 2010s, with employment growing at the fastest rate of any of the last six decades
  • The number of hours worked also rose at the fastest rate over the same period
  • But this employment boom hid poor quality jobs and is unlikely to be sustainable

 

4. Productivity growth slowed to a crawl

  • The UK’s sluggish economic expansion in the 2010s was largely the result of more people being in work, rather than greater efficiency, resulting in the slowest productivity growth of any decade since the second world war
  • According to the IMF, the output per person employed in the UK grew at an annual rate of 0.6% in the 2010s, compared with 1.1% in the previous decade and more than 2% in any other post world war decade
  • Poor productivity growth undermines employers’ ability to pay their workers more, which would allow living standards to rise

 

Conclusion

Richard Davies, fellow at the London School of Economics, concludes: “The story will not change in 2020 – the most important economic puzzle of our time, the flat-lining of output per hour for over a decade, will remain the government’s key challenge”

Billionaires reveal their secrets

An interesting piece by Jade Scipioni in a CNBC news piece ‘Beyond the Valley’

There are some 2,600 billionaires in the world — and more than two-thirds are self-made

A few have of the latter have shared lessons on life and how they found success

Warren Buffett, worth some $80 billion – Invest in yourself:

  • By far the best investment you can make is in yourself: 
    • The best way to do that is by first learning to communicate better, both in writing and in person, as it will increase your value by at least 50%
    • If you can’t communicate to somebody, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark – nothing happens
    • You have to be able to get forth your ideas
  • Start taking care of your body and your mind when you are still young:
    • You get exactly one mind and one body in this world, and you can’t start taking care of it when you’re 50
    • By that time, you’ll rust it out, if you haven’t done anything – so it’s just hugely important
    • And if you invest in yourself, nobody can take it away from you
  • If you get to be 65 or more, and the people you want to love you actually do love you, you’re a success

Jeff Bezos, worth some $111 billion – Change your mind:

  • Bezos started building Amazon by selling books out of his Seattle garage in 1994
  • It is crucial to be open and willing to change your mind.
  • They have the same data set that they had at the beginning, but they wake up and reanalyse things all the time and they come to a new conclusion and then they change their mind
  • People who typically win in life have worked hard to recognise what beliefs or biases they hold and actively try to look for evidence that disconfirms them
  • This allows you and your business to be more creative, flexible and ultimately more successful

Bill Gates, worth some $113 billion – Surround yourself with the right people

  • A lot could go to one’s head when you have tens of billions in the bank
  • Gates stays humble by doing normal things like washing the dishes after dinner each night and driving his kids to school in the morning
  • He also surrounds himself with people who keep his ego in check, including his wife, Melinda, his three children and his best friend, fellow billionaire Warren Buffett.
  • If I come back and I look like I’m all puffed up, they cut me down to size a little bit

Jack Ma, worth $46 billion – Anybody can be successful if you try hard

  • Jack Ma grew up in China and was rejected from 30 jobs before being introduced to the internet in 1995
  • With no marketing or legal skills, knowledge of technology or money, he started the Alibaba e-commerce group in his apartment
  • We had almost nothing, but we believed in the future,” Ma said
  • The three keys to success are to think differently, never give up and use the skills that you have currently
  • If everybody agrees, then there is no opportunity – to be successful it’s essential to think about things that no one is thinking about yet
  • Ma was also rejected by Harvard (he applied 10 times) and says that you can’t let rejection stop you
  • Of course, you are not happy when people say ‘no’ – so have a good sleep, wake up and try again
  • And use what skills you have – in his case he was good at customer service
  • “I only know about people”
  • “When you spend time on the people you serve, when they’re happy — you win!”

AI promises huge productivity gains for financial services

In an article by Donna FuscaldoArtificial intelligence) will bring lots of gains to the financial services industry, whether it’s through automating processes or adding more convenience for their customers.
But now we can quantify just how big of an enhancement AI will have on the bottom line for financial services companies around the globe. According to consulting firm Accenture it’s $140 billion. That’s in productivity gains and cost savings by 2025, all because of artificial intelligence and augmented technology.

Accenture recently studied the changing face of the workforce as disruptive technologies become more prevalent in companies around the world. The consulting firm found around 50% of tasks in the financial services industry could be augmented with technology by 2025, which will result in a big increase in productivity – for example:

  • AI could aid financial advisors in making real-time stock picks
  • Or help loan underwriters better gauge the risk of borrowers
  • Or it could enable banks to offer customised products based on an individual’s personal finance habits

 

Banks are expected to generate $59 billion in productivity gains by augmenting skills with technology while insurance companies can expect to generate $37 billion in gains and capital markets companies are forecast to realize $21 billion in productivity increases.

While financial services companies have already seen big boosts in productivity and efficiency thanks to automating data entry, processing, and account reconciliation there’s room to do more. Accenture said anywhere from 7% to 10% of tasks within banks, insurers, and capital market firms could be automated savings banks $12 billion, insurers $7 billion and investment firms $4 billion.
With all this augmenting and automating going on it also means the face of financial services firms’ workforce has to change. As it stands there’s a dearth of workers skilled in these advanced technologies making it hard to find talent. As more companies embrace AI, data analytics and machine learning, it’s only going to get tougher to find top talent.
At the same time, many companies lack a clear plan to prepare their workforce for roles in which technology and humans work side by side. Without those transformations, companies will never achieve the billions of dollars in productivity gains that Accenture says is available to them.

“There’s a new era ahead for financial firms that see the value of combining human ingenuity and personal touch with technology efficiency and precision to create new sources of growth,” said Cathinka Wahlstrom, who leads Accenture’s Financial Services practice in North America when announcing the research results. “This isn’t about cutting costs to improve the bottom line, it’s about embracing technology to transform the workforce.”

The scarcity of workers who possess data analytics, cybersecurity, and AI skills can’t be met by recruiting more people. It has to be solved by reskilling existing employees so they can deliver value to the enterprise almost immediately, argues Accenture. By automating some job functions the employee can be redirected to focus on high-value work whether that’s building customer relationships or coming up with new products or services. It’s not that computers will replace workers, it’s that computers will work alongside them.

“Traditionally companies have said OK we will recruit more people but what we’re saying in this report is you can’t just go get more people. There aren’t enough people with the skills,” said Bridie Fanning, Accenture’s talent & organisation practice lead for financial services.  “They are much better off if they reskill their people and get them the training they need.”

2020 foresight for fossil-free energy

A report by Kelsey Warner in The National says that, over the next 10 years, the Middle East’s biggest export could become the sun, not oil, thanks to new technology that turns solar power into fuel

A new Bill Gates-backed clean energy company, Heliogen, based in Lancaster, California, has concentrated solar energy to exceed 1,500°C – at that temperature, they can split water molecules to make 100% fossil-free fuels such as hydrogen

And in addition to creating green fuel, the technology can also replace fossil fuels in the production of cement, steel and petrochemicals, dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions

“I’m so excited that it’s actually possible,” Bill Gross, founder and chief executive of Heliogen, told The National

“The decade of the 2020s is going to be a decade where we make or break it”

Although concentrated solar power has been used before, it has never reached the temperature required to make cement or steel – indeed, cement alone accounts for 7% of global carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency

The task ahead is convincing industrial energy producers to replace their old methods with this new alternative – and high on the list is the Middle East

Gross said: “They have the money, the land, the sun, and the will – they also talk of their vision for how they want to transform their economy – they will still be making fuel, but it will be fuel that didn’t come from digging – it will be fuel that came out of the air, from water and air”

Gross calculates that Saudi Arabia could fully replace its oil exports with green solar-generated hydrogen if it commits just 4% of its land – some 1,000 square kilometres – and invests $400 billion in developing a concentrated solar park.

The fact that Heliogen has solid financial backing from Bill Gates means they can potentially survive the so-called valley of death period between having a technical prototype and a system that is commercially ready for the market

Nevertheless, Gross says: “We’re picking the first customer now – it’s probably going to be a mining or minerals company in the Mojave Desert [in California] where I can show it on a big enough scale that Saudi Arabia can copy”

“Accelerating clean energy innovation needs to be a priority” says Espen Mehlum, head of energy at the World Economic Forum – “Clean-tech development is too slow and many technologies are needed to meet the global climate targets”

Gross echoes that sentiment: “It makes me more optimistic because I feel there is a technological solution to greenhouse gas emissions” – “It makes me nervous that we won’t adopt it fast enough”

The Heliogen team is made up of 20 scientists and engineers, mainly from Caltech and MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), who have been working for several years to combine mechanical engineering with massive strides in computer science and computing power

Heliogen uses computer software to align a large array of mirrors extremely accurately to reflect sunlight on to a single target – the amount of computing power needed to assess and capture the maximum amount of solar energy possible in real-time was not commercially feasible five years ago – but now it is

According to Gross: “This is so big I can’t do it all myself”

“I just want to show people there’s a way – I hope people steal this idea”

Wasted time at school

Government sanctioned waste has a lot to answer for

Ministers might bang on about the importance of productivity improvement but their thinking seems restricted to vital investment in infrastructure, R&D and skills training

Drive around any town mid-afternoon and see streams of kids walking home from school – and wonder what they do when they get back home, often to an empty home – homework, maybe, but not for long – or play some records, but again not for long

In fact, many change into casual clothes and go out again to meet their chums, play games or hang around on street corners

They’ve got bags of stored-up energy which needs to be released – they seek some fun, excitement even – many channel this energy into positive activities – however, some get up to mischief, join gangs and indulge in petty crime or worse, not least because they’re bored and have nothing else to do

Meanwhile, at the same time, all their expensive school facilities lie empty – available but unused – for example, playing areas/ fields for different sports and kids to compete against each other or other schools , gymnasiums for exercise and fitness training, rooms and instruments for kids to learn to play chess, the piano or guitar , or form pop bands, orchestras or choirs

Overall, costs are not reduced by tipping the kids out onto the streets at 2-3 p.m. – their grey cells may be too tired to absorb more prescribed knowledge by then but why not keep them back until much later (6 p.m. say) and convert the school into something akin to a youth club after their lessons have finished – in their free time, most kids prefer to be with chums their own age anyway

And this could be done without asking current teachers to work longer hours – old boys and girls who had recently left the school could be recruited as relatively inexpensive teachers’ assistants to lead/ supervise/ referee/ train groups of the kids using all the school’s facilities – this would be a formalised work experience for them

Huge benefits to society as a whole would accrue if such a simple policy was adopted, including:

  • Expensive child-care costs for many families would be decimated at a stroke
  • Many more parents, especially those with valuable experience, would be released to join the national labour force – currently, there’s a looming shortage in all developed nations
  • Kids would enjoy a broader education by learning stuff outside the narrow curriculum
  • Kids would also be better prepared for competing in the big wide world after leaving school
  • Petty crime would fall
  • Many kids would be deterred from lives of crime
  • Fewer kids would drift into using or selling drugs, not least because ‘county lines’ recruitment would become more difficult

Indeed, years ago, youth clubs took on much of this role, but far too many of them have since been disbanded, for one reason or another

So one has to ask why the government does not implement such changes – the penalty costs of the current waste of existing school facilities must surely be in the £ billions

It’s yet another open goal for ministers to consider when chasing national productivity improvement

 

 

 

Productivity crisis fixed?

The Times has announced a project to be run by the strangely named ‘Be the Business’, a government sponsored initiative aimed at solving the productivity crisis said to be afflicting the nation

100 big companies, including Amazon, Aviva, BAE systems, British Land, Cisco, Google and Rolls Royce, ‘will promise to boost UK productivity by encouraging greater adoption of tech skills among their suppliers and offering mentor programmes for managers’

The rationale for this venture seems to be as follows, with our first reactions attached:

  • Current ONS statistics on GDP and national productivity are accurate and useful – they’re not – such stats prompt no action by individual businesses and are meaningless to individual citizens – and some say they’re ‘dangerously misleading’ for government ministers when policy-making
  • ‘Economic growth across the country is stalling’ says Charlie Mayfield, also boss of the the retailer John Lewis, much in the news recently for underperforming – actually, current mis-measurement of GDP is such that the UK may even be performing well – nobody truly knows!
  • ‘Productivity has barely improved over the last decade’ so the impact on the economy and our standard of living has been ‘severe’ –  whilst a social inequality gap still exists in the UK, the rich v poor ratio has continued to fall dramatically – most now have an acceptable standard of living and have moved on to seeking a better quality of life – national measures need to recognise this change
  • Small firms and the self-employed form the UK’s ‘long-tail’ of poor performers – the implication is that all big firms in any sector are best performers employing best managers who use best methods – this was not my experience and is clearly not so
  • If the ‘long tail’ acquire more tech skills and mentoring from the big boys (their customers) quantum leaps in productivity and revenue/ profits/ tax-take will result – many of the big boys fail to make big improvements when trying latest fads (aka tech skills?) such as Lean or Agile – they ignore the huge benefits on offer from truly putting their customers first, identifying and cutting causes of waste and making better use of existing resources –  and such actions don’t need any outside support (from consultants or the big boys’ surplus managers) or ‘best practice’ transfers, just internal enthusiasm and common-sense

 

All up, we hope we’re wrong about this latest venture – indeed, we hope it makes a big quantifiable difference for many people and businesses in the near future

At present, however, it seems to be yet another initiative that enjoys an initial fanfare of publicity and hope but lacks the beef to follow